Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) shares have been one of the biggest ASX winners in 2025.
Like many gold stocks, it has benefited from booming commodity prices. Defensive investor sentiment amongst global political uncertainty this year has also pushed investors into safehaven investments like gold.
At the time of writing, Regis Resources shares are trading at $6.93 each. This is roughly 170% higher than January's opening price of $2.58.
Many investors without gold exposure in their portfolios may be wondering whether there is any more upside for gold stocks.
Here is Macquarie's view on Regis Resources shares in the next 12 months.
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Regis Resources shares Outlook
Regis Resources is a gold production and exploration company based in Western Australia. One of the company's main assets is the 100%-owned Duketon Gold Project (DNO) in the North Eastern Goldfields of WA.
The team at Macquarie highlighted in its recent report that Regis has released a new mine plan. The plan extends DNO's life by approximately 6 years to FY31.
This capitalises on strong gold prices and spare mill capacity once stockpiles run out in FY26.
Macquarie now factors in ~44koz per year of additional output from FY27–31 at an AISC of ~A$3,525/oz, higher than DSO due to lower grades and likely higher strip ratios.
Capex for FY26 has risen, with Duketon growth capital lifted to A$220–235m (+A$40m).
Essentially, this means that Regis (RRL) will produce an extra ~44,000 ounces of gold per year from FY27 to FY31 because of the extended Duketon North (DNO) plan.
This production uplift increases Macquarie's EPS forecasts by ~16% in FY27–30, partly offset by higher operating costs.
We view the DNO extension as a relatively low-cost/risk strategy to take advantage of spot gold prices and latent mill capacity.
Upside might already be priced in
Despite the optimism around the DNO extension, the team at Macquarie has a neutral rating on Regis Resources shares.
Stronger EBITDA from incremental production, partly offset by higher costs drives EPS changes of ~16% over FY27-30. We increase our TP by 6% to A$7.20 from the incrementally stronger production outlook.
From today's opening price of $6.92, the updated price target of $7.20 indicates an upside of roughly 4%.
Although it did not say it in the report, it seems the massive rise in share price this year means much of the upside for Regis Resources shares is already priced in.
