BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares or Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares?
If you're looking to add one of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants to your investment portfolio, or increase your exposure if you already own shares, which stock should you buy?
We'll take a look at what the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have to say on that matter below.
But first, how have the two Aussie miners been tracking?
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Which ASX 200 mining stock has outperformed?
In early afternoon trade today, BHP shares are down 0.3%, trading for $42.92 each.
Rio Tinto shares are slipping as well, down 0.6% at $131.72 apiece.
Over the past year however, Rio Tinto has outperformed its larger rival. Rio Tinto shares are up 15.8% over 12 months, not including the $5.933 in fully franked dividends the ASX 200 stock has paid out over this time. At the current price, Rio Tinto shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.50%.
As for BHP, shares in Australia's biggest miner are up a lesser 5.8% over 12 months. BHP also paid out $1.71 in fully franked dividends over the year. At the current price, BHP shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.0%.
That's a look in the rear view.
Now, here's what Macquarie revealed in a new metals and mining research report, released on Wednesday.
Should you buy Rio Tinto or BHP shares?
Macquarie noted that unlike BHP shares, Rio Tinto shares could be involved in the pending merger between international mining companies Teck Resources and Anglo American.
The broker noted that in the upcoming merger a "management circular named a 'Party X' that approached Teck on a 'nil premium' merger proposal raising questions whether RIO was involved given speculation and recent activist positioning".
As for the implications for Rio Tinto, Macquarie said:
Whilst unclear whether RIO or another miner, any implication that RIO may be involved in M&A is unsurprising given the merits of Fe diversification and Teck's Cu growth.
However, key question may continue on whether RIO's DLC [dual-listed company] structure is prohibitive to conduct M&A, which will garner investor focus.
With the LTD/PLC spread at a 22% premium, we see merits of a DLC collapse should tax risks abate or erode in significance, likely over time.
Macquarie also pointed to the recent outperformance of Rio Tinto shares over BHP shares.
The broker said:
Since October 1, RIO has outperformed BHP by 6%. We believe this has been driven by perceptions of RIO's cost out at the Capital Markets Day counteracted by BHP's iron ore price negotiations. We suspect RIO will focus inwards on improvement before acting inorganically.
As far as Macquarie's preferred stock, the broker has a neutral rating on Rio Tinto shares with a 12-month target price of $124.00 a share. That's 6.2% below the current shares price.
Macquarie also has a neutral rating on BHP shares. But with a 12-month price target of $44.00 a share, that represents a potential upside of 2.4% from current levels.
Neither price target incorporates the upcoming dividends from the ASX 200 mining stocks.
