Bell Potter says this ASX real estate stock could rise 33%

Here's why Bell Potter is optimistic.

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ASX real estate stock Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX: CWP) is in focus today after the company released its 3Q26 trading update.

Cedar Woods is an Australian property development company. Its principal interests are in urban land subdivisions and built-form development for residential, commercial, and retail purposes.

Its share price shot 3% higher yesterday after its trading update, before correcting 2% lower today. 

This ASX real estate stock is down 15% year to date. 

A warehouse worker is standing next to a shelf and using a digital tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

What did the company report? 

On Thursday, the company reported: 

  • On track to meet FY26 guidance at 30%–35% NPAT growth – stages presold & construction complete
  • Fully franked interim dividend of 14.0 cps paid on 24 April 2026
  • 442 gross sales in 3Q26; the second strongest quarter in the Company's history
  • Record presales of more than $788m ($700m pcp, up 12%) provide confidence in FY27 profit growth
  • Over 80% of forecast FY27 revenue presold. 

Managing Director, Nathan Blackburne said: 

Customer enquiry remained exceptionally strong in the quarter, with 9,663 enquiries – the highest quarterly result in our history – and this continued to translate into solid sales outcomes, with 442 gross sales in 3Q, our second strongest quarter on record.

What did Bell Potter have to say about this ASX real estate stock?

Following the results, Bell Potter said FY27 is largely de-risked with fixed price construction contracts in place across various projects, and given the flagged 1H earnings skew, some confidence that the business starts the new year well. 

While the market has become more challenging in recent months since the start of the Middle Eastern conflict, CWP's balance sheet and record presales should help it to navigate what could be a trickier quarter or two coming. Trading at just 9.4x FY26 PE vs. 14.2x living sector BP coverage avg and 14.8x passive REIT peers we think CWP screens favourably given strong B/S, ability to restock and prospects for medium term growth.

Buy rating unchanged

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has maintained its buy recommendation. 

However, the broker has lowered its price target to $9.65 (previously $10.20). 

From today's stock price of $7.23, this indicates an upside potential of 33%. 

As a bonus for potential investors, this ASX real estate stock also boasts a healthy dividend.

It is expected to pay a dividend yield of 5.35% and 5.6% in the next two years. 

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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