The ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is trading in the green today, up 0.06% at the time of writing. But this ASX All Ords media stock is outpacing the index gains for the day already.
At the time of writing, oOh!Media Ltd (ASX: OML) shares are also trading in the green, up 0.16% for the day at $1.26 a piece.
The ASX All Ords stock has shed 31.6% of its share price since August, after investors reacted poorly to its H1 FY25 results. For the year-to-date, the share price is still 6.05% higher.
Just last week Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) tipped a 45% upside for the shares over the next 12 months. But in a note to investors this morning, the broker has revised its expectations on the ASX All Ords media stock.
The media company released a trading update late last week which revealed updated guidance for 2025. The company expects revenue to be slightly below the 2024 calendar year, in the range of $689 million to $694 million and adjusted EBITDA to be $139 million to $142 million including NZ restructuring costs.
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Target price cut on oOh!Media shares
The broker has maintained its outperform rating on the shares. But it has lowered its 12-month target price to $1.45, down significantly from the price target of $2 just last week.
At the time of writing that represents a potential upside of 15.1% for investors.
"Target price =A$1.45/sh (A$2.00/sh previously), based on 12x 12-month forward P/E, which is now a 15% discount to its long-run average (14x). Improved visibility and ad trends would support a higher multiple," the broker said in its new note to investors.
oOh!media has significant operating leverage and the ad market has been see-sawing through 2025, with commentary now suggesting we are through the worst of it. Valuation is attractive, on 10x 12-months forward P/E (vs. 14x through the cycle avg.), and an improved ad market would support a re-rating.
What else did the broker have to say about the ASX All Ords stock?
Macquarie analysts noted that oOh!Media's updated guidance implies 4Q25 will be down a few percent, which is the biggest ad spend quarter.
Slowing revenues and mix (retail higher margin), will now see the gross margin at around 43% in 2025, whilst operating cost guidance is unchanged ($159 million to $161 million), and results in adjusted EBITDA of $139 million to $142 million in 2025. This is 9% higher than guidance, which was already 9% below Macquarie estimates of $154 million, and 7% below market expectations of $152 million.
We now forecast A$150m 2026 adjusted EBITDA, +8% yoy (previously A$170m); and is based on: 1) A$731m revenues, +6% yoy (+4%pts underlying + 2%pts net new contracts), 2) 43% gross margin, consistent with 2025, and 3) A$161m operating costs, +2% yoy, benefitting from cost-out annualisation.
