The gold price has ripped over the past two years amid a significant increase in central bank purchasing and wider global investment.
On Tuesday, the gold price is US$4,134 per ounce, up 0.4% today and up 57% in the year to date.
The gold price hit a new record above US$4,300 per ounce last month.
The safe-haven asset's remarkable ascendancy has sent ASX gold shares skyrocketing.
The share price of the market's largest gold miner, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), has surged 124% since November 2023.
The share price of Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), which is the second-biggest ASX gold share, has risen by 207% over the period.
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM), the third biggest ASX gold share, is up 156%, with one expert slapping a sell rating on it today.
The fourth biggest mining share, Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), has vastly outperformed, streaking 323% higher in just two years.
Some analysts are hesitant on gold right now, with Far East Capital tipping likely profit-taking on ASX gold shares at some point.
But Russel Chesler, VanEck's Head of Investments and Capital Markets, says there are three enduring reasons to invest in gold long term.
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3 reasons to invest in gold long term
In an article, Chesler outlines three reasons why gold should form part of our investment portfolios over the long term.
Chesler comments:
Unlike other assets, gold is not tied to corporate earnings, interest rate policies or government fiscal decisions.
It moves to the beat of its own drum, providing valuable diversification.
Gold, we think, has an important role to play in portfolios.
Reason 1: Gold's performance
Chesler says gold's performance over five decades has not been tied to the economy, as has been the case with shares and bonds.
In a portfolio, this is important because it means that gold can behave as a counterbalance to market fluctuations.
Allocating to assets that perform differently from each other is key to diversification.
Reason 2: The gold price increases with US money supply
Chesler says investors have used gold as protection against government overspending and stimulatory central bank policies for decades.
As more money floods the system, each dollar loses value, and people spend more freely, leading to higher demand and inflation.
Much has been made of the depreciation of the US dollar recently.
When a currency depreciates, it means that the cost of importing goods and services is higher, and this could lead to inflation.
Inflation has long been cited as a reason to invest in gold.
Reason 3: Gold does well during high inflation
Chesler says the rise in the gold price since the end of 2021 has coincided with a period of higher inflation post-COVID.
The increased government debt and its spending combined with geopolitics … create an ideal environment for a sustained period of above-target inflation.
This all plays into why investors are flocking to gold now.
How much gold should you have in your portfolio?
Chesler recommends a 5% to 15% allocation to gold in your portfolio.
We think this should be enough to provide the diversification benefits … and protection against inflation, market volatility and geopolitical risks.
It's important to note that gold should not be used as a speculative play or a temporary hedge.
We consider gold to be a strategic long-term investment that can enhance your portfolio's resilience.
Where to next for the gold price?
Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price will keep rising to US$4,900 per ounce by the end of next year.
French bank Societe Generale SA tips US$5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.
