Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares have been out of form recently.
So much so, the cloud accounting platform provider's shares are now down 28% from their 52-week high and sit just above their 52-week low.
While this is disappointing for shareholders, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks that it could have created a compelling buying opportunity for everyone else.
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What is the broker saying?
Macquarie has highlighted that a perfect storm is brewing in the United States, which leaves Xero well-positioned for growth in the key market. It explains:
Perfect storm. With a good Macro backdrop and no clear #2 player in US, XRO's aggressive push coincides with INTU's focus on ARPUs, driving 1) a focus on the Direct channel, away from XRO's core Partner channel, and 2) mid-market customers, away from XRO's Core TAM.
The broker also highlights that the market appears to be pricing in a miss with the rule of 40 and a sharp slowdown in growth beyond FY 2028. However, Macquarie doesn't believe this will be the case, particularly given the recent Melio acquisition. And it suspects that a major re-rating could take place once US subscriber growth starts to build. It said:
Current share price implies XRO misses Rule of 40; market isn't pricing Melio upside. Modelling XRO guidance to FY28, the current share price implies that in FY29-FY35, XRO slows to an AMRR CAGR of 12% in the core business at a terminal FCF margin of 19%.
Melio is a bold move at >13x ARR, driving near-term EPS downgrades. However, new management demonstrates the lessons learnt from old XRO failures in the US market. In the past, XRO did not go hard enough, fast enough. Nor did they have a clearly-defined, well articulated, and product-led strategy. Now they are. Despite a big push right, big opportunities require big investment. First sign of US subs growth should drive multiple re-rate.
Time to buy Xero shares
According to the note, the broker has retained its outperform rating with an improved price target of $228.90.
Based on its current share price of $141.74, this implies potential upside of over 60% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its outperform recommendation, Macquarie said:
Mgmt is walking the walk, making data-driven decisions that invariably lead to better capital allocation outcomes. We have high conviction in >12- month story. Brand reinvestment and near-term earnings downgrade are buying opp for LT investors. Reiterate Outperform.
EPS: We revise FY26/27/28/29E EPS by +7%/-63%/-46%/-34%, driven by Melio, US brand spend & higher PD&D. Conservatively, MRE Melio FCFs are negative until FY32. MRE terminal FCF margin is ~3% below INTU's current FCF margin. Valuation: Our DCF underpins our TP of A$228.90 (prior: A$204.00; +12%), reflecting above EPS changes (incl outer years) & changes to DCF inputs. Catalysts: 1H26 result (13 Nov), product announcements, M&A, Gusto.
