Is it too late to buy CBA shares?

Here's what the experts think.

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Key points

  • Commonwealth Bank shares increased 5.07% in the past month and 22.76% over the year, outperforming the ASX 200 index.
  • Despite recent gains, 14 out of 16 analysts rate CBA as sell or strong sell, with significant downside predicted.
  • Analysts suggest recent price increases are due to index positioning rather than strong financial prospects, with limited capital growth expected.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price closed 1.26% on Thursday at $178.57 a piece. The banking giant's shares have climbed 5.07% higher over the past month and are 22.76% higher than this time last year.

The Aussie bank has far outperformed the benchmark. Over the past month the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has dropped 1.7% and over the year it has climbed 7.67%.

There has been no price-sensitive news out of the bank stock since its FY25 result in August. At the time, the company reported a 7% increase in statutory net profit after tax and a 4% lift in cash net profit after tax. The latter was broadly in line with the consensus estimate of $10,270 million.

It looks like investors continue to be upbeat on the banking sector right now following the release of one of the big four bank's full year results earlier this week. Investor interest in CBA shares was also reignited following its annual general meeting (AGM) in mid-October. 

And, just recently, CBA appeared on the list of Australia's top 10 most traded shares. 

With more results due to be released in the coming days, investors seem to be confident that CBA can deliver a strong result.

Now the question is, is it time to buy or has the window of opportunity now closed?

Here's what analysts think about CBA shares

Analysts consensus seems to be that the buying opportunity for CBA shares has well and truly passed.

According to TradingView data, out of 16 analysts, 14 have a sell or strong sell rating on the stock. The minimum target price is $100.00 and the maximum is $146.00. Regardless, both price targets represent a significant potential downside of 18.24% to 44% at the time of writing.

Remo Greco from Sanlam Private Wealth told The Bull that he has a sell rating on CBA shares. He thinks the recent share price increases were driven by index positioning rather than the prospect of strong financial results. He also added that he thinks capital growth is limited.

Macquarie has an underperform rating on CBA shares with a $106.00 target price. That's more than 40.6% below the CBA share price at the time of writing. The broker recently said that there is limited earnings risk for the bank ahead, but as rate cuts flow through to deposit margins, it expects pressures to emerge.

Macquarie also has an underperform rating and a $106.00 price target on CBA shares. Meanwhile, Morgans has a sell rating and $100.85 price target on its shares.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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