If you bought any, or all, of the big four S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stocks a year ago, you'll have handily beaten the benchmark returns.
All of the big four Aussie banks are in the green today.
Here's how they stack up to the benchmark index's 9.0% one-year gains:
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have gained 20.0%
- ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have gained 18.8%
- National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have gained 14.0%
- Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have gained 20.9%.
And this outperformance doesn't include the two dividends each of the big four ASX 200 bank stocks paid out over the year.
At current prices, CBA shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 2.8%; ANZ shares trade on partly fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.5%; NAB shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 3.9%; and Westpac shares also trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 3.9%.
That's the year just past.
But what can investors expect in the year ahead?
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ASX 200 bank stocks in the spotlight
Having run their slide rules over the ASX 200 bank stocks, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) said:
Bank valuations have continued to hold up since August, with ANZ's turnaround and a positive macro backdrop offsetting weakness in CBA. We see modest upside risk in the upcoming reporting season [H2 2025] but believe medium-term earnings risks are mixed.
Drilling down to the big four banks, Macquarie said, "We see limited earnings risk [for CBA] in 1H26, however, as rate cuts flow through to deposit margins we expect margin pressures to emerge."
The broker has an underperform rating on CBA shares with a $106.00 target price. That's more than 38% below the current CBA share price of $171.47.
Turning to NAB shares, Macquarie said:
We are ~2% ahead of consensus on a pre-provision basis in 2H25E. We see upside risk to margins thanks to lower liquids and favourable funding trends. While NAB's credit quality indicators are likely to lag peers, we expect the improved macro backdrop will see some offsetting provisioning releases. We see intensifying competition in the business space as a key risk to earnings.
Macquarie has a neutral rating on NAB shares with a $38.00 price target. That's more than 13% below the current NAB share price of $43.86.
As for ASX 200 bank stock Westpac, the broker said:
We are ahead of consensus on a pre-provision basis in 2H25E, partly thanks to stronger markets income. However, we see risks to FY26-27E pre-provision profits as lower rates impact margins and WBC's replicating portfolio tailwind becomes a headwind.
Macquarie has an underperform rating on Westpac shares with a $31.50 price target. That's more than 18% below the current Westpac share price of $38.70.
Which brings us to…
Macquarie's preferred big four Aussie bank pick
Commenting on the outlook for ANZ shares, Macquarie said:
We are ~1% ahead of consensus on a pre-provision basis in 2H25E. Given recent updates, the key focus for the result will likely be any update on cost savings as well as recent margin trends…
ANZ remains our preferred stock in the sector; while ANZ has performed strongly in recent months, it still appears cheap vs peers.
Macquarie has a neutral rating on the ASX 200 bank stock with a $34.00 price target. Despite ANZ topping the broker's big four bank list, that's still more than 8% below the current ANZ share price of $37.09.
