Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have climbed 0.225% at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon, to $153.86 a piece.
Over the past month, the shares have dropped 10.39% after the banking giant's stock crashed just over 15% between the 6th and the 19th of November.
The shares are still trading higher than their 52-week low of $140.21, but they're a long way away from the all-time high of $192 per share reached in June.
Image source: Getty Images
So if I bought $20,000 of CBA shares last year, how much are they worth now?
CBA shares are currently trading at a price 2.35% lower than this time last year. This means $20,000 invested 12 months ago would now be worth a total of $19,530.
What caused the latest nosedive?
This month's share price tumble follows the bank's quarterly update, posted on 11th November. The bank reported a quarterly cash NPAT of approximately $2.6 billion, with a 1% increase from the previous half-year and a strong CET1 ratio of 11.8%, above regulatory requirements.
But the results failed to justify CBA's premium share price valuation, and investors started hitting the sell button in panic.
CBA shares were the third most-traded by CommSec clients last week, too, although this appears to be mostly buying activity.
Is it too late to buy or is there more upside ahead?
Analysts consensus is that the buying opportunity for CBA shares has now passed, with more downside anticipated throughout 2026.
According to TradingView data, out of 15 analysts, 13 have a sell or strong sell rating on the stock. The minimum target price is $96.07, and the maximum is $146. Regardless, both price targets imply a significant potential downside of up to 37.72%, at the time of writing.
Macquarie has an underperform rating on CBA shares with a $106 target price. That's more than 40.6% below the CBA share price at the time of writing. The broker recently said that there is limited upside potential ahead.
Analysts at Morgans have a sell rating on CBA shares and a $96.07 target price. At the time of writing, that implies an enormous 40% downside for investors over the next 12 months.
Bell Potter is underweight on CBA shares. The broker said that the bank's "valuation premium has expanded to an extreme and, in our view, unsustainable level, trading at a P/E multiple that is ~40% above the peer average".
