The 'big four' ASX bank shares have had a phenomenal run since late 2023.
The S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index (ASX: XBK) has ripped 51% over this period versus a 22% lift for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares rose from just under $100 in November 2023 to a record of $192 in June this year.
Since then, CBA shares have come off the boil, falling 20% to a closing value of $153.14 yesterday.
Meanwhile, the smaller players of the 'big four' have surged to all-time highs.
The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price hit a record of $41 this month and closed at $38.02 yesterday, up 12% in FY26.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares soared to a record $45.25 this month and closed at $40.63 yesterday, up 3% in FY26.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares reached a record $38.93 this month and closed at $34.91 yesterday, up 20% in FY26.
The following chart shows the big four's performance since November 2023 and the recent divergence of the CBA share price.
How do experts rate the big four banks?
Brokers appear pretty pessimistic on the big four ASX bank shares today.
Macquarie has neutral ratings on ANZ and NAB shares with 12-month price targets of $35 and $39, respectively.
The broker has underperform ratings on CBA and Westpac shares with price targets of $106 and $31, respectively.
All of those price targets imply downside from here.
Bell Potter is underweight on CBA shares and overweight on ANZ shares.
On CBA shares, the broker says:
We are moving further Underweight in CBA, establishing it as our largest active underweight position in the Core portfolio.
The bank's valuation premium has expanded to an extreme and, in our view, unsustainable level, trading at a P/E multiple that is ~40% above the peer average.
On ANZ shares, the broker says:
We are moving to an overweight position in ANZ, which we see as the clear relative value proposition and our preferred holding in the sector. ANZ delivered the cleanest and highest-quality result of the recent reporting season, providing a tangible "self-help" story that NAB and CBA lack, while Westpac's is relatively priced in.
Wilsons Advisory rates ANZ as the best value among the ASX bank shares "on all key valuation metrics".
Morgans has a trim rating on ANZ shares with a price target of $33.09. The broker has a sell rating on NAB and CBA shares.
Wilsons notes that Westpac shares offer an attractive dividend yield and the bank has "the strongest balance sheet" of the big four.
Buy this ASX bank share instead
On The Bull this week, Tony Paterno from Ord Minnett revealed a buy rating on small-cap ASX bank share, MyState Ltd (ASX: MYS).
Paterno explained:
MYS is a national diversified financial services group. Brands include MyState Bank, Auswide Bank, Selfco and TPT Wealth.
We view MyState as an attractive income stock with dividends to reflect stronger earnings growth during the next three years as Auswide merger synergies are delivered.
In an expensive banking sector with only modest forecast earnings and dividend growth to fiscal year 2028, we believe MYS is a standout.
