JB Hi Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) shares are sliding today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) electronics retailer closed on Friday trading for $104.72. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $103.61 apiece, down 1.1%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.
Taking a step back, JB Hi-Fi shares are up 26.9% since this time last year, racing ahead of the 8.6% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.
And that doesn't include the two fully franked dividends totalling $3.75 a share that the company paid out of this time. JB Hi-Fi currently trades on a 3.6% fully franked trailing dividend yield.
Now, here's why the team over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) forecast another year of strong outperformance ahead.
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JB Hi-Fi shares on the growth path
JB Hi-Fi released its September quarterly update last week, on 30 October.
Highlights included total sales growth of 6% quarter on quarter for JB Hi-Fi Australia, with total sales for JB Hi-Fi New Zealand surging 39.3%.
Total sales growth at The Good Guys came in at 2.5%, and sales at e&s increased by 4.1% from the prior quarter.
And the ASX 200 electronics retailer is continuing to expand its footprint.
"We will continue to expand our store network across the group. In FY26, we will open three new JB Hi-Fi New Zealand stores, one new e&s store and five JB Hi-Fi Australia stores," CEO Nick Well said on the day.
Despite the solid results, JB Hi-Fi shares closed down 4.5% on Thursday, potentially impacted by the unexpectedly high Aussie inflation print on Wednesday crushing expectations for an RBA interest rate cut tomorrow.
However, Macquarie doesn't expect the uptick in inflation will take the wind out of JB Hi-Fi's sails.
Why Macquarie expects the ASX 200 retail stock to outperform
In a new report, Macquarie said that JB Hi-Fi's Australia sales are tracking in line with its own estimates. The broker is also keeping a close eye on the potentially positive impact from the new iPhone17 release.
Offering a bullish assessment on JB Hi-Fi shares, Macquarie said:
Management noted the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 had been a ~2ppt tailwind to sales growth in 4Q25, and therefore we believe maintaining growth in line with the trading update is a positive.
We note market feedback has been positive on the strength of the iPhone 17 launch, which occurred toward the end of 1Q26A (19-Sep). We observed sell-outs across the major tech retailers, though believe JB may continue to see a benefit in 2Q26E given it had the shortest time to fulfilment amongst competitors. Longer term, we continue to see growth to be driven by the replacement/upgrade cycle, including in next-gen laptops.
Macquarie also pointed to the upcoming sales frenzy that tends to accompany Black Friday and Cyber Monday as potential catalysts.
Connecting the dots, the broker raised its target price for JB Hi-Fi shares to $121.00 (from the prior $118.00).
That represents a potential upside of 16.8% from current levels. And it doesn't include those two upcoming dividends.
