Of all the blue-chip stocks listed on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) has to be one of the most disappointing. Since Endeavour shares were spun out of Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) back in 2021, there hasn't been much in the way of Champagne popping.
The pub operator and owner of the Dan Murphy's and BWS bottle-shop chains began its ASX life at $6.10 a share and even reached as high as $8.32 in August 2022. But ever since, investors have suffered.
After months, if not years, of lacklustre results, management infighting, and shareholder agitation, Endeavour shares hit a new all-time low of $3.45 each last month. Today, the company is only just keeping its head above that low watermark, trading at $3.62 at the time of writing. That's a good 56.5% or so below where the company was back in those August 2022 heydays.
However, given Endeavour's enduring position as the market leader in take-home alcoholic beverages – a famously resilient business – many investors might be wondering whether this is a prime 'buy-the-dip' opportunity in an ASX 200 market that remains fairly close to all-time highs.
Well, let's see what a prominent expert thinks.
In a recent investing note, analysts at Macquarie ran the ruler over Endeavour and its shares.
Unfortunately for investors, they didn't find too much to be optimistic about.
Image source: Getty Images
Expert rates Endeavour shares as underperform
Macquarie's team retained its underperform rating on Endeavour, giving the company a 12-month share price target of just $3.50. As you can probably gather, that doesn't bode well for shareholders if the team is on the money.
Macquarie pointed to rising competition from the recently revamped Liquorland chain, owned by Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), as the primary concern. Rising competition is resulting in Endeavour increasing expenditure on promotions and price matching, which is bad news for the company's margins.
As such, Macquarie is expecting Endeavour to report anaemic revenue growth over FY2026 and FY2027 of between 1% and 2%. Analysts are pencilling in a potential pickup in FY2027, though, which is projected to see revenue and underlying profits pick up to 2% and 11%, respectively. That's a long way away though, and a long time to wait for disgruntled shareholders, who might end up becoming some of Endeavour's best customers if Macquarie's predictions turn out to be accurate.
Let's see if these analysts are on the money, though.
At the current Endeavour share price, this ASX 200 consumer staples stock is trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.24 and a trailing dividend yield of 3.48%.
