2 ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding this week

I'm looking elsewhere instead.

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Key points

  • Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG): Recently posted a 31% drop in net profit after tax; divided analyst sentiment and target price swings create uncertainty, making it a cautious choice for investors.
  • Santos Ltd (ASX: STO): Facing pressures from an energy transition and recent FY25 guidance downgrade; the withdrawal of a takeover bid and CFO resignation add to concerns over stability and growth prospects.
  • Both stocks illustrate heightened risk amid recent ASX 200 downturn post-inflation data, with uncertain future performance making them less attractive in the current environment.

The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) index closed 0.96% lower on Wednesday, at 8,926.20 points, after the latest inflation data spooked the market.

The slump will likely be just temporary for some companies on the index. But for others with lower growth prospects, it could spark a share price downturn.

Here are 2 ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding this week.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

Magellan Financial shares closed the day in the red on Wednesday, down 1.39% at $9.94 per share. The issue is that after recovering 54.11% from an 18-month low in April this year, I'm not sure there is much more room for the stock to run. The shares are now 8.72% lower than this time last year.

The Australian-based funds manager revealed its group earnings earlier this month. It announced an increase in total assets under management (AUM) to $40.2 billion. But the recent increase in AUM isn't enough to convince investors and analysts that the share price might start climbing higher.

This comes after the fund manager's fiscal year results. It showed operating profit was 5% higher, but its net profit after tax was down a significant 31%. 

TradingView data shows that analysts are completely divided about the stock too. 

Out of 9 analysts, 6 have a hold rating on the stock and 2 have a sell rating. The maximum target price is $12.20 but the minimum is $7.85. This represents anything from a potential upside of 22.74% to a potential downside of 21.03%. That's a significant swing and enough to make me stay clear for now.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos shares closed 0.16% higher at $6.33 per share, at the close of the ASX on Wednesday. The ASX 200 share price has recovered 15.1% from an all-time low in April but it is still 7.86% lower than this time last year.

As an oil and gas producer, Santos is heavily exposed to risks around the transition to cleaner energy, tariffs and regulatory issues. The company released its quarterly update in mid-October which revealed a FY25 guidance downgrade. 

Meanwhile, a XRG consortium takeover bid was withdrawn in September, just days before the expected decision date. This has raised concerns about Santos' prospects as a standalone business. 

MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena (courtesy of The Bull) recently called time on the shares too. He said that the announced resignation of the company's Chief Financial Officer in mid-October adds to instability. He added that in the absence of another takeover bid amid potentially weaker energy prices, the company's shares could remain under pressure.

TradingView data shows that analysts are divided about the stock too. Out of 16 analysts, 2 have a sell rating, 3 have a hold rating, 5 have a buy rating and 6 have a strong buy rating. Like with Magellan shares, the ranges of target prices also makes me unconfirmable here too. 

Analysts expect the share price to be anything between $8.87 and $6.10 over the next 12 months. This represents anything from a 40.12% upside to a 3.69% downside. 

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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