Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) iron ore stock closed on Friday trading for $20.52. In morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $20.67 apiece, up 0.7%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.5% at this same time.
Taking a step back, Fortescue shares have gained 6.3% over the past 12 months. The ASX 200 mining stock also trades on a fully franked 5.3% trailing dividend yield.
So, is the big Aussie miner a good buy for the year ahead?
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Record quarterly iron ore shipments
Fortescue shares closed up 2.4% on Thursday following the release of the company's Q1 FY 2026 results, covering the three months to 30 September.
Highlights included record iron ore shipments of 49.7 million tonnes, up 4% year on year.
The ASX 200 miner maintained its FY 2026 guidance of total iron ore shipments in the range of 195 million to 205 million tonnes.
Fortescue ended the quarter with a cash balance of US$4.6 billion.
Commenting on the miner's operational plans, Fortescue CEO Dino Otranto said:
We've also started to implement our revised Hematite life of mine plan, underpinned by the inclusion of the recently acquired Blacksmith Project. The plan optimises material movement and orebody use, ensuring Fortescue remains positioned as a low-cost, capital-efficient operator, maximising value across our operations.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Fortescue shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Following Thursday's quarterly update, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) maintained their underperform rating on Fortescue shares, while raising their 12-month price target by 12%.
One of the positives the broker cited was Fortescue's new mine plan. According to Macquarie:
FMG announced a new mine plan aiming to cut its Life of Mine (LoM) strip ratio 1.6x after integrating Blacksmith. A new 55% product in place of West Pilbara Fines (60% product) is being introduced. Previously, we lowered our strip ratio assumptions on declining product grades, but a shift in product strategy with a 1.6x strip target is significant; we cut strip ratio accordingly.
Macquarie also pointed to potential production upside. The broker said:
CEO Dino Otranto highlighted that lowering cutoff grades relaxes mining constraints (we think heritage-linked), helping fill supply chain capacity, with the ship loaders a bottleneck. We believe falling iron ore prices and depletion at Hancock and Utah Hub could free up infrastructure capacity. We lift long-run production to 215mtpa.
Despite maintaining its underperform rating, Macquarie said there wasn't much in Fortescue's September update that it didn't like. The broker noted, "Our key concern remains undiversified iron ore exposure, however the company appears to be controlling the controllables."
Connecting the dots, Macquarie lifted its 12-month price target to $18.50 a share "on improved earnings in the medium to longer term".
Still, that's more than 10% below current levels.
