Looking for a high yielding S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend stock that's also well-placed to deliver market beating share price gains?
Then you might want to have a look into international toll road operator and developer Atlas Arteria Ltd (ASX: ALX).
That's according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who just reiterated their outperform rating on Atlas Arteria shares.
Atlas Arteria shares closed up 1.4% on Thursday, trading for $4.99 apiece.
On the passive income front, the ASX 200 dividend stock paid out 40 cents per share in unfranked dividends over the past full year. That sees the stock trading on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 8.0%.
Atlas Arteria shares are down 0.2% over 12 months, with the stock having gained 4.6% in 2025.
Looking to the year ahead, Macquarie expects investors will enjoy a materially better share price performance atop those welcome dividends.
Here's why.
ASX 200 dividend stock tipped to outperform
Atlas Arteria released its third quarter (Q3 2025) update on Wednesday.
Among the highlights, the ASX 200 dividend stock reported a 10.9% year-on-year increase in proportionate toll revenue for the three months ending 30 September.
The company credited the increase to "strong" traffic growth across its global portfolio of toll roads.
"At Dulles Greenway, increased congestion on competing routes supported continued traffic strength," the company noted said.
Commenting on that result, Macquarie noted:
Greenway's traffic growth is accelerating. This is consistent with DTR (+~8%), I-95 (+9%) and I495 (+5%), as congestion rebuilds to pre-2020 levels. Price application this quarter – we expect at 20-25% – becomes lower risk as traffic surges.
With discussion with SCC, VDOT and Loudoun County as a precursor to the application, we anticipate less resistance to a sensible claim. Success provides a pathway for cashflow from the asset.
Atlas Arteria also highlighted one its other US-based assets, stating:
Chicago Skyway traffic also grew as commuters took to the road over summer, with heavy vehicle traffic also improving relative to Q2. Proportionate toll revenue was positively impacted by toll increases as well as beneficial movements in foreign exchange rates.
Amid expectations that France will rollover the Temporary Supplemental Tax that Atlas Arteria's French operations recently got slugged with, Macquarie lowered its 12-month price target for the ASX 200 dividend stock to $5.55 a share, down from the prior $5.64.
That still represents a potential upside of 11.2% from Thursday's closing price. And it doesn't include the two upcoming 2026 dividend payouts.
