You're unlikely to see the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) rocket 60% over the next year, but ASX All Ords mining stock Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI) just may.
That's according to the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who forecast some strong outperformance from the miner.
Aurelia Metals shares closed on Wednesday trading for 25.0 cents apiece. That sees the ASX All Ords mining stock up 21% over the past 12 months and up 39% year to date.
Investors and the analysts at Macquarie both gained more insight into the company's performance on Tuesday, following the release of Aurelia's September quarter update (Q1 FY 2026).
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What did the ASX All Ords mining stock report?
For the three months to 30 September, Aurelia produced 10,400 ounces of gold, 500 tonnes of copper, 6,500 tonnes of zinc, and 3,800 tonnes of lead.
The miner reported operating costs of $70.0 million, which includes costs relating to the ramp up of its Federation mine as it transitions to commercial production.
The ASX All Ords mining stock also reaffirmed its full year FY 2026 production, cost and capital guidance. And the company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $88.1 million.
Commenting on the first quarter performance, Aurelia CEO Bryan Quinn said:
The Great Cobar project has commenced and is delivering in line with our commitments, with 448 metres of development already completed. Our focus on rapid development towards the orebody will also enable us to set up exploration platforms for further drilling into the area below the Mineral Resource.
Mining at Federation continues to ramp up ahead of our budget year to date. It is particularly pleasing how well the material is performing in the Peak processing plant.
Why Macquarie is bullish on Aurelia shares
Following the release of the Aurelia's Q1 results, here's what Macquarie's analysts said they liked:
Gold production slightly higher than forecast: 1QFY26 gold production of 10.4koz was a 5%/4% beat versus MQe/VA. AMI is tracking well versus the midpoint of gold production guidance with 26% of gold produced versus FY26 guidance. At Federation ore mined volumes continued to ramp up (19% increase QoQ) to 63kt, and development metres ramped up to 1,481m (31% higher QoQ), close to AMI's target of 1,500m/qtr.
And here's what they didn't like:
Weaker by-products: AMI had weak by-product production in 1QFY26, particularly copper which at 0.5kt was a 43%/42% miss versus MQe/VA. Lead production of 3.8kt was 16%/27% lower than MQe/VA and zinc production of 6.5kt was 7%/11% lower than MQe/VA. Versus midpoint of Cu/Pb/Zn guidance AMI has produced 13%/21%/23%.
The broker added, "Positively, AMI has indicated that it is expecting an uplift in copper production during 2QFY26 after high-grade copper stops are expected to come online at Peak."
Connecting the dots, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Aurelia Metals share with a 12-month price target of 40.0 cents per share.
That represents a potential upside of 60.0% for this ASX All Ords mining stock from yesterday's closing price.
