The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price is trading in the red on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the share price is 1.01% lower and changing hands at $3.22 per share. Over the past month, South32 shares have climbed 23.09% higher.
Over the year, the shares are still down 10.91%. This is mostly thanks to a 30% sell-off in late March off the back of falling commodity prices and oversupply concerns.
The miner released its quarterly report for the three months to September yesterday morning. Its production highlights included a 12% increase on payable copper at Sierra Gorda and a 33% uplift in manganese volumes.
South32's FY26 production guidance remains unchanged across all operations.
Following the miner's latest update, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have updated investors with its latest stance on the stock.
Image source: Getty Images
What's ahead for South32 shares?
In a note to investors, the broker confirmed its neutral rating on South32 shares. It also raised its target price to $3.00, up from $2.80 earlier this month. However, at the time of writing, that represents a potential downside of 6.8% over the next 12 months.
"Valuation: We increase our ASX target price by 7% to A$3.00 and LSE target price by 4% to £1.45 on improved near term earnings outlook," Macquarie said.
"Neutral: S32 1QFY26 was mixed with beats in most commodities offset by a miss at Cannington. No formal commentary on Cannington's sale was made; we see key portfolio decisions that could day-light value await onboarding of new CEO Matthew Daley mid-CY26."
What else did the broker have to say about South32's update?
Macquarie analysts noted that production of alumina was 3% higher than market consensus. Both the miner's Worsley and Brazil Al2O3 sites beat market consensus by 3% and 5% respectively. Worsley production was largely unchanged quarter-on-quarter, while Brazil Alumina was 6% higher due to improved plant availability.
The miner's copper (Cu) production was also 3% higher than market expectations, largely due to higher-than-expected Cu grades (production up 3% on the previous quarter).
But zinc production was an 18% miss quarter-on-quarter due to lower grades. South32 notes that zinc guidance remains unchanged, with higher average grades expected over the remainder of FY26. Macquarie said that South32's Cannington asset is reportedly up for sale, although it has not been confirmed.
Elsewhere, Macquarie has updated its near-term earnings forecasts off the back of the quarterly update and the broker's revised expectations for gold prices.
"We recently updated our gold price to reflect current market pricing which had moved materially higher than our prior forecast. Incorporating 1QFY26 operational update and the recent gold price upgrades (which impact Sierra Gorda revenues), we saw EPS upgrades of 8%/9%/4% for FY26e/FY27e/FY28e," the broker said.
