Why Macquarie expects this inflation-busting ASX All Ords stock to keep outperforming

Macquarie has a bullish outlook for this dividend-paying ASX All Ords stock. But why?

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Key points

  • Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Ltd (DBI) outperformed the All Ordinaries Index over the last one and two years.
  • Macquarie Group anticipates sustained outperformance from DBI, citing predictable income growth with inflation and expected annual dividend increases of 5%.
  • Potential future growth includes a significant NECAP investment boosting EBITDA and opportunities for re-contracting with miners that could enhance pricing strategies.

ASX All Ords stock Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Ltd (ASX: DBI) has long track record of outperformance.

Atop its market-beating share price gains, the infrastructure company – which owns the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) in Queensland – is also popular among passive income investors for its quarterly dividend payouts.

Now this isn't an investment that's likely to double your money in a year.

But with history as our guide, the ASX All Ords stock can do so given a bit of time.

Here's what I mean.

Over the past 12 months, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has gained 8.0%.

Over this same time, Dalrymple Bay shares have gained 31%, closing yesterday trading for $4.38 apiece.

And that's not including the 23 cents a share in partly franked dividends Dalrymple Bay shares delivered to eligible stockholders over the full year.

At yesterday's closing price, Dalrymple shares are trading on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 5.25%.

Looking ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believe the company is well-positioned to keep outperforming.

ASX All Ords stock tipped to outperform

Many companies struggle to pass on the rising costs associated with inflation to their customers.

But Dalrymple is in a strong position there.

"DBI is a unique infrastructure business, with a predictable base income growing with inflation," Macquarie noted.

And the broker expects that the ASX All Ords stock will be able to increase its dividend payouts by 5% every year amid a strong earnings growth forecast.

According to Macquarie:

Replacement/new (NECAP) investment of ~$0.7bn becomes the near-term growth driver in the next five years, adding ~27% to EBITDA, which comfortably translates to 5% pa sustainable dividend growth.

Looking further ahead, the broker added:

Re-contracting with miners in CY31 could see DBI move from the current light-handed regime to an unregulated regime, where it can price relative to alternative ports like NQXT [North Queensland Export Terminal]; this could bring material upside (+$1.00/ ps).

Even if the current regime continues, there is scope to reprice access to reflect higher bond rates compared to 2022 (+$0.26/ps), and recovery for future remediation costs.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX All Ords stock, explaining, "We think DBI is a unique investment with dividend growth of 5% and a valuation EV/EBITDA multiple of 13x, which is below comparable port multiples."

The broker added, "Main upside event is 8X development [planned expansion of DBCT], and medium-term repricing to capture more of the difference between NQXT and DBCT."

Connecting the dots, Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $4.91 per share for Dalrymple Bay. That's 12% above Tuesday's closing price. And it doesn't include those four upcoming dividends.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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