The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed relatively flat on Tuesday, ending the day just 0.19% higher at 8,899.40 points.
But while the broader index is relatively unchanged, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have pinpointed two high-yield ASX 200 stocks to keep an eye on over the next 12 months.
Two ASX 200 stocks expected to outperform
In a recent note to investors, the broker highlighted Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) and Dexus (ASX: DXS) shares as contenders for good growth over the next 12 months.
It has an outperform rating and $2.70 target price on Mirvac shares. It also has an outperform rating and $8.46 target price on Dexus shares.
At the close of the ASX on Tuesday, Mirvac shares were $2.30 a piece. This means the broker anticipates a potential 17.4% upside for investors.
Dexus shares closed the day at $7.32 per share. This means Macquarie's 12-month target price represents a potential 15.6% upside for its investors.
What does the broker have to say about listed property shares?
Macquarie said it has reviewed the 3Q25 JLL commercial property data, which analyses the performance, trends, and outlook of the commercial property real estate market. The broker commented in its investor note that secondary assets and non-CBD markets are expected to underperform. But, that overall yields are stable in Q3 with transaction volumes improving.
The broker also noted that the office data supports a sector recovery. In early 2025, Macquarie explained that it advocated for a rotation into the office. This was based on an "anticipated gradual recovery in income fundamentals and stocks trading at deep discounts to book value".
It added:
3Q25 office data continued to be positive across most headline data points, and positive forecast revisions over CY25 support an improving environment. This has driven office REITs to partially close the discount to book but DXS remains at a 17% discount, ABG at 30%, COF at 29% and GOZ at 17%.
Macquarie thinks A-REIT trading continues to imply a ~10+% fall in office asset values. Office values have fallen significantly (~20%) from their peak in 2Q22.
We believe there is limited downside risk to book values given stability in market data and with the spread to real bonds around the long-run average.
Given this, we believe the falls implied in share prices are too great, and therefore this presents an attractive entry point. We maintain a preference for DXS (OP) and MGR (OP), for their office exposure in our preferred precincts, where the fundamental outlook is more favourable.
