Buy, hold, sell: A2 Milk, Guzman Y Gomez, and Treasury Wine shares

Analysts have given their verdict on these popular shares. Let's see what they are saying about them.

| More on:
A group of young ASX investors sitting around a laptop with an older lady standing behind them explaining how investing works.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Currency tailwinds suggest possible FY 2026 revenue upside for A2 Milk but there are valuation concerns.
  • Guzman Y Gomez is expected to see continued sales growth driven by strategic and market factors.
  • Treasury Wine Estates faces uncertainties and strategic challenges prompting a reassessment of its outlook.

There are a lot of options out there for investors to choose from on the Australian share market.

So, to narrow things down, let's take a look at three popular ASX shares and see if analysts think they are buys, holds, or sells right now. Here's what they are saying about them:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

Bell Potter has been looking at this infant formula company's shares following a strong gain year to date.

And while it sees upside risk to consensus revenue estimates for FY 2026 due to currency tailwinds, it isn't enough for anything better than a neutral (hold) rating with an improved price target of $9.60 (from $7.85). It said:

The rapid devaluation in the NZD against A2M's functional currencies is creating the scope for upside to FY26e revenue estimates in a similar fashion to what we saw approaching the 1H25 result (i.e. a low single digit gain in growth rates). Despite the FX tailwind that looks to be emerging our Hold rating is unchanged.

A2M is not a particularly cheap dairy, FMCG or infant formula exposure at current share price levels and does not stand out as a sector relative value play, based on its three-year EPS growth profile. Though we would concede that this EPS growth profile is largely self-driven through supply chain internalisation rather than market dependent and hence lower risk.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

Another ASX share that investors might be looking at is quick service restaurant operator Guzman Y Gomez.

The good news is that Morgans thinks this one is a buy and has put a $32.60 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price, this offers potential upside of 30% over the next 12 months.

Morgans believes that the company's performance will improve as the financial year progresses and drive its shares higher. It said:

The 1Q26 played out largely as expected with comp sales growth improving slightly through the quarter as GYG cycled through a period of elevated demand in the pcp (IPO and 'Clean is the new Healthy). Our forecasts are largely unchanged. Whist comp sales growth is tracking below our FY26 forecast of +5% (which is in line with VA consensus), GYG continues to expect comp sales growth to improve from 1Q26 levels.

We see higher comp sales growth being delivered in 2Q26 (MorgansF is +6.0%) driven by Caesar (already driving improved comp sales growth) and cycling an easier comparison (on a two-year stack GYG is cycling +9.4% in 2Q compared to +10.2% in the 1Q). In our view, 1Q26 will likely be the low point for comp sales growth this year and accelerating comps combined with conservative margin guidance should continue to drive the stock higher from here. Maintain BUY.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Finally, this wine giant's shares have lost half of their value this year. As a result, investors may be wondering whether to buy them on the cheap.

Morgans, which has been bullish for some time, has lost patience with the Penfolds owner and downgraded its shares to a hold rating with a heavily reduced price target of $6.35 (from $10.10).

Commenting on its downgrade, the broker said:

TWE's trading update and the removal of guidance is clearly disappointing given a slowdown in China and uncertainty surrounding the timing and quantum of compensation from its previous Californian distributor, RNDC. This is despite TWE reiterating its growth targets two months ago. The fact that TWE is not in a position to provide 1H26 or FY26 guidance demonstrates the uncertainty facing the group in the near term.

The new CEO doesn't begin until the end of this month. We have made double digit downgrades to our forecasts and stress that earnings uncertainty remains high. Consequently, we move to a HOLD rating. We will reassess our investment view post hearing from the new CEO.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Australian dollar notes in the pocket of a man's jeans, symbolising dividends.
Broker Notes

Why this dividend paying ASX All Ords share is tipped to outperform again in 2026

A leading broker forecasts more outperformance to come from this dividend-paying ASX share.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Broker Notes

Brokers rate these 3 top ASX shares as buys in December

These stocks have an exciting outlook.

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Collins Foods, Imdex, Treasury Wine shares

Let's see what Morgans is saying about these shares.

Read more »

Two people shake hands making a deal about green energy.
Broker Notes

Does Macquarie rate AUB Group shares a buy after the deal fell through?

The AUB Group takeover deal is dead, but the business is very much alive, with Macquarie still seeing good value…

Read more »

Contented looking man leans back in his chair at his desk and smiles.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A hand holds coin and a small growing plant.
Broker Notes

Up 61% since April, 3 reasons to buy this ASX All Ords share today

A leading broker expects more outperformance from this fast-rising ASX All Ords share.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Broker Notes

What are analysts saying about Goodman and these ASX stocks?

Are these shares buys, holds, or sells? Let's find out.

Read more »

A rockets heads into space, indicating a share price rising 'to the 'moon'
Broker Notes

Why Macquarie expects this surging ASX All Ords mining stock to rocket another 160%

Macquarie forecasts outsized gains from this small-cap Aussie rare earths miner. Let’s see why.

Read more »