Macquarie tips nearly 70% upside for this ASX 200 financials stock

This company could deliver strong capital returns and a big dividend over the coming year.

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Key points

  • Despite a challenging year with a 40% decline in share price, GQG Partners is seen by Macquarie as having substantial upside.
  • The company reported US$167.2 billion in funds under management as of September 2025, with recent net outflows attributed to its defensive market positioning during a challenging macro environment.
  • GQG Partners is considered an attractive option for investors seeking strong capital gains and high dividend yields, offering a forward yield of 13.5%.

ASX investors are always on the lookout for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stocks with substantial upside. 

With the ASX 200 Index sitting not too far from its all-time high, investors may be struggling to find value in an expensive market. 

Indeed, many ASX 200 companies across various sectors are trading at record highs. These include banking giant Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), technology stock Life 360 Inc (ASX: 360), and gold mining company Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM).

Conversely, ASX 200 financials stock GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) has been under pressure in recent times, with the stock declining more than 40% over the past year.

Is GQG Partners attractive or a value trap?

Market volatility is normal. Share prices move up and down all the time, triggered by a broad based sell off, a large shareholder offloading their holding, or a negative broker report. 

However, when an ASX 200 company falls significantly in one year, investors must question why before buying the stock. 

A decline of 40% in just one year certainly fits that category. 

Last week, GQG Partners posted an update, which revealed a snapshot of its funds under management (FUM) as of the end of September. 

The company reported Funds under management (FUM) of US$167.2 billion as at 30 September 2025, following net outflows of $1.7 billion for the month.

Management attributed recent outflows and portfolio underperformance to ongoing defensive positioning in a challenging macro environment. 

Following this update, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) retained its outperform rating but reduced its price target slightly from $2.55 to $2.50. 

However, given that shares closed at $1.56 yesterday, this suggests around 70% upside from here including capital gains and dividends. 

Macquarie cited the company's portfolio positioning and high dividend yield to justify this price target, writing:

EPS is underpinned by a resilient FUM base given fund positioning. GQG also has an attractive 1-yr fwd yield of 13.5%.

Foolish Takeaway

With the ASX 200 sitting not too far above its all-time high, Macquarie sees GQG Partners as an attractively valued ASX 200 stock in an expensive market. The company's focus on defensive positioning has caused it to significantly underperform the market. Due to its significant share price decline, GQG Partners shares now offer a forward dividend yield of 13.5%. Those after both strong capital gains and a high dividend yield should consider GQG Partners. 

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Gqg Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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