Owning Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares has largely been a good call for investors since the GFC, with the investment bank going through a significant expansion over the last 16 years, as well as growing passive income payouts in most years.
As an ASX financial share, the business typically trades on a relatively lower price-earnings (P/E) ratio than other sectors, allowing the business to reward investors with a decent dividend yield. It also typically likes to be fairly generous with the dividend payout ratio.
According to CommSec, there are currently seven analyst buy ratings on the business, making this a good time to consider whether Macquarie shares can provide an appealing passive income in 2026. Let's look at the dividend potential of a $15,000 investment.
Potential 2026 payout
The projection from CommSec suggests that the business could see a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $10.85 in the 2026 financial year.
If the business has a fruitful year, the projection is that it could pay an annual dividend per share of $7.10 in 2026. Pleasingly, the forecasts on Commsec suggest EPS and the dividend could rise again in 2027, with the payout increasing to $7.70 per share. But today's focus is the FY26 payment.
At the time of writing, the possible payout for the 2026 financial year translates into a dividend yield of 3.4%, excluding franking credits. Grossed up for the likely franking credits, it's a dividend yield of around 4%.
What would happen with a $15,000 investment in Macquarie shares?
Based on the potential dividend payout for FY26, a $15,000 investment in Macquarie shares could unlock $510 of annual passive cash income.
Including the potential franking credits, the payout would translate into just over $580 of grossed-up dividend income.
But, there's also the potential capital growth that could occur over the next year.
A 12-month time period is fairly short when it comes to shares – it's better to think about three years, or more, into the future.
Having said that, analysts' price targets generally indicate to investors where they expect the share price to be in a year from the time of the investment call.
According to CMC Markets, of recent analyst price targets on the business, the average price target is $222.59, implying a possible rise of approximately 8% from where it is at the time of writing.
Therefore, analysts suggest that a $15,000 investment in Macquarie shares could increase to nearly $16,200 over the next 12 months. If the dividends and Macquarie share price rise as analysts predict, it could be a market-beating year for the ASX financial share.
But, there could be other ASX shares that could deliver an even stronger return.
