ASX energy shares, particularly fuel distribution stocks like Apmol Ltd (ASX: ALD) and Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA), are a popular option among income-focused investors who want exposure to the oil and gas industry.
Petroleum refiner and distributor Ampol is currently in an expansion phase and has recently agreed to acquire EG Australia for $1.1 billion. EG owns and operates around 500 service stations in Australia, and its network is Ampol's largest dealer network.
The acquisition is expected to add around $53 million of EBIT to Ampol's earnings in the 2026 calendar year. The move is also expected to add another $172 million EBIT in the 2027 calendar year.
At the time of writing on Friday afternoon, Ampol shares are 1.71% higher and changing hands at $30.33 per share. For the year, the shares are 0.26% higher.
Meanwhile, transport fuel supplier Viva Energy continues to focus on cost-reduction initiatives and has recently announced a change of leadership in its Convenience and Mobility business.
Late last month, the business announced that its CEO, Jevan Bouzo, has resigned and will leave at the end of the year. Group COO Jennifer Gray will be interim CEO while the company looks for a permanent replacement.
At the time of writing, Viva Energy shares are 0.28% higher and trading for $1.785 a piece.
The two businesses are clearly in a development phase. So, which is the best option for investors?
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Macquarie's take on Ampol and Viva Energy shares
In a recent note to investors, the broker confirmed its neutral outlook on Ampol shares and raised its 12-month target price to $31. At the time of writing, that represents a potential upside of 2.2%.
The broker said it sees disciplined merger and acquisition and solid execution from Ampol.
"Earnings: We raise 2025e EPS by 2.5% which reflects stronger refining margins (driven by SWAM) partly offset by lower F&I (costs)," Macquarie said in its note.
"Valuation: Our P/E based TP remains based on 16x, and TP is +2.5% to $31.00/sh based on the increased earnings. We believe ALD is executing well, however are waiting for a better re-entry point in the stock."
The broker also confirmed its neutral outlook on Viva Energy shares and lowered its target price to $2 per share. But that represents a potential upside of 26.1% for investors over the next 12 months.
It explained that it sees an uncertain OTR rollout, which has driven a lower multiple for now. Viva Energy plans to expand its OTR convenience store brand following the acquisition of the model in 2024.
"Earnings: We raise 2025e EPS by ~8% on stronger refining margins, and cut 2026-28e EPS by ~4% on slightly lower refinery utilisation (based on disappointments in recent years)," the broker said.
"Valuation: We lower our 12-mth P/E multiple to 12x (was 14x) given the now increased uncertainty associated with the OTR rollout & profit uplift (and TP -11% to $2.00/share)."
Macquarie said it expects most of the 2Q strength in the fuel market to continue into 3Q.
"Notably, Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane have held up well in petrol, yet Adelaide softened quite a bit… Petrol volumes sold at retail outlets continue to decline meaningfully YoY (4% YTD YoY Jan-Jul)."
