Shares in Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) have pulled back 7% over the past month, but the bigger picture still looks impressive for shareholders.
The ASX energy giant remains up around 30% year to date and has surged roughly 48% over the past 12 months.
Much of that rally has been driven by volatile oil markets. Brent crude prices have swung sharply with every new Middle East strike, peace negotiation headline or ceasefire rejection.
But after such a strong run, one expert believes investors may want to consider locking in some profits.
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Oil and gas prices drive the rally
Woodside is one of Australia's largest oil and gas producers, with operations spanning liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and offshore energy projects.
The company generates revenue by producing and selling energy products into global markets, making earnings heavily tied to commodity prices.
That dynamic has worked strongly in Woodside's favour recently. Higher oil and gas prices have boosted realised selling prices and strengthened cash generation, helping drive the Woodside share price rally over the past year.
Woodside's first-quarter FY26 update highlighted that trend clearly. The company reported a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating revenue to US$3.26 billion despite production falling 8% to 45.2 million barrels of oil equivalent due partly to heavy rainfall disruptions.
Importantly, Woodside's average realised price rose 11% to US$63 per barrel equivalent during the quarter, helping offset weaker production volumes.
Risks remain elevated
However, investing in energy stocks like Woodside shares always comes with significant risks.
Commodity prices remain highly volatile and are heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth and supply disruptions.
If oil prices retreat sharply, Woodside's earnings and dividends could quickly come under pressure.
The company also faces operational risks tied to weather events, project execution and rising costs.
Longer term, the global energy transition toward renewables also creates uncertainty around fossil fuel demand growth.
Analysts remain divided
Broker sentiment towards Woodside shares remains mixed.
According to TradingView data, seven of 14 analysts currently rate the stock as a hold. Five analysts have buy ratings, while two recommend selling.
The average 12-month price target currently sits around $33 per share, implying roughly 7% upside from current levels. The most bearish analyst forecast suggests downside of around 21%, while the most bullish implies potential upside of roughly 41%.
Why one expert says sell
Over at Sanlam Private Wealth, Remo Greco, has named Woodside shares as a sell.
The investment firm believes investors may want to take advantage of elevated crude oil prices and recent share price strength to cash in some gains.
Commenting on Woodside shares Greco said (courtesy of The Bull):
The energy company produced a record 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in full year 2025. However production was offset by lower realised prices. Consequently, net profit after tax of $2.718 billion was down 24 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Full year fully franked dividends were down 8 per cent. In our view, relying on dividends carries risk if commodity prices or production fall. Investors may want to take advantage of elevated crude oil prices to cash in some gains.
