Are Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) shares in the buy zone after its recent funds under management (FUM) update?
Let's see what the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is saying about the fund manager.
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What is the broker saying?
According to a note out of the investment bank, Macquarie was pleased to see Magellan report its first quarter of net inflows in over four years. Furthermore, its inflows were significantly ahead of the expectations of both the broker and the consensus, which were both expecting the figure to be negative. It said:
First quarter of net inflows since early CY21: Sep-25 quarter net inflows of +$0.5bn (equivalent to 5.1% as a % of FUM, annualised), well ahead of MRE -$1.4bn and Cons -$1.3bn. Retail net outflows at -$0.4bn was in line (MRE -$0.55bn, Cons -$0.57bn), while institutional net inflows of +$0.9bn materially surprised vs both MRE (-$0.86bn) and Cons (- $0.74bn) driven by inflows into Airlie (+$0.8bn) and Infra (+$0.2bn).
As a result, this led to the company's FUM comfortably topping estimates for the quarter, which has led to an increase in Macquarie's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Though, the increase isn't as great as you might expect given how its FUM mix is shifting more towards lower fee clients. The broker adds:
FUM of $40.2bn was +4.7% vs MRE $38.4bn and +2.9% vs Cons $39.1bn, reflecting stronger net flows, with the implied fund performance in line with MRE. Despite the stronger FUM, our EPS upgrades are more muted at ~1.3%, given FUM mix shifted towards lower-fee Institutional clients (60% Sep-25 vs 58% Jun-25), with institutional fees at 27bps vs retail 110bps in FY25.
Are Magellan shares in the buy zone?
While Magellan's performance during the quarter was pleasing, it isn't enough for Macquarie to change its view on the stock.
The broker continues to believe that its shares are overvalued and has retained its underperform rating with an improved price target of $8.65.
Based on its current share price of $10.42, this implies potential downside of 17% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie said:
Underperform: We see downside risk to FY26E due to associate profits and sub-advisory fees, with continued risks to net flows in the near-term.
Valuation: $8.65 TP (from $8.55) based on the ave of DCF, PE Rel & SOTP. Catalysts: (1) 22-Oct: AGM, (2) Late Oct-25: Vinva FY25 financial accounts, (3) Oct-25: Lonsec Infrastructure Fund rating reviews.
