Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are leaping higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock closed yesterday trading for 90.5 cents. During the Friday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for 96.0 cents apiece, up 6.1%.
This sees shares in the lithium stock up a whopping 120.5% since the recent 7 April lows.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.1% today, and the benchmark Aussie index is up 19.6% from its own recent 7 April lows.
Today's outsized gains come after yesterday's 0.6% slide in Liontown shares, which followed the release of the miner's full-year FY 2025 results.
We'll have a look at what the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) made of those results, and the broker's 12-month share price target, in a tick.
But first, a quick recap.
Image source: Getty Images
What did the ASX 200 lithium miner report?
Liontown's Kathleen Valley lithium project, located in Western Australia, delivered its first production in July 2024. The project then achieved commercial production in January this year.
This saw the miner generate $298 million in revenue over the 12 months to 30 June. While underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at $55 million, equating to an 18% margin.
But investors still sent Liontown shares lower following the results release, with the company reporting an underlying net loss after tax of $140 million. The losses were driven by amortisation of open pit waste site and depreciation costs associated with Liontown's new processing plant.
On a statutory basis, the losses were even heftier, with the lithium miner reporting a statutory net loss after tax of $193 million.
"While we reported a statutory loss, this was expected in a commissioning year and reflects depreciation and the treatment of stockpiles built up during ramp-up," Liontown CEO Tony Ottaviano said.
What's Macquarie's forecast for Liontown shares?
In a new report, Macquarie was clearly underwhelmed by the lithium miner's full-year results.
The broker maintained its underperform rating on Liontown shares, noting that the $193 million statutory net loss was "a miss" of 33% from its own estimates, and 88% below consensus estimates.
Macquarie is also concerned about ongoing pricing volatility in global lithium markets.
"LTR notes FY25 was a volatile year with supply news, rumours and shifting sentiment driving price swings. LTR reported a realised spodumene price of US$673/t (SC5.2) in FY25," the broker said.
And Macquarie added that FY 2026 is a transition year for the ASX 200 lithium stock.
"LTR previously flagged FY26 will be impacted by the overlap between the wind down open pit operations, and ramp-up of full-scale underground operations at Kathleen Valley," the broker said.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie said:
The FY25 result was a miss vs. expectations (largely depreciation impacted). We view the cessation of open pit mining (in Dec-25) and progress of the underground ramp-up as key … with 1QFY26 expected to be the weakest quarter for production in FY26.
The broker has a 12-month price target for Liontown shares of 65 cents. That's more than 32% below current levels.
