Why Friday's US inflation report could send the gold price to another record

Friday could prove to be a big day for the gold price.

| More on:
A woman in a business suit holds a large gold bar in both hands with a gold arrow tracking upwards.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Newmont Corporation and Evolution Mining have seen substantial share price increases, significantly outperforming the market over the past year due to a strong gold price.
  • Gold-focused ETFs like the Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF and the Betashares Gold Bullion Currency Hedged ETF have also delivered double-digit returns, providing investors with diversified exposure to rising gold prices.
  • With expectations for further rate cuts, investors may find ASX gold stocks and ETFs attractive for potential continued support and gains from gold price movements.

Last night, the gold price reached another new all-time high. 

The precious metal rose 1.6% to US$3,744.

That coincided with a strong session for all major US indices, which also reached fresh record highs.

Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, with an extremely long track record of increasing in value in times of turbulence.

The gold price has rallied strongly this year on persistent geopolitical uncertainties, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict.

Over the past couple of weeks, the gold price received a further boost after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled more rate cuts were on the horizon. 

The lowering of interest rates boosts the appeal of gold, a non-income-producing asset. In a low-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding it relative to interest-earning assets such as dividend shares decreases.

According to Bloomberg, investors have piled into US gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year, with total holdings in mid-September reaching their highest point since 2022.

All eyes on the next inflation report

This week, markets will reflect on the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation.

Investors are expecting to see a further cooling of inflation, reinforcing the case for further interest rate cuts. 

This could spark the next rally for the gold price. 

Tonight, investors will also hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for fresh signals on the central bank's monetary policy path.

ASX gold stocks and ETFs continue to rally

A strong gold price has translated into a very favourable period for many ASX-listed gold stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

Among the top-performing gold stocks have been Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN). 

Newmont shares have risen 17% this month and 60% over the past 12 months. Evolution Mining shares have eclipsed this performance, rising 23% in a month and 135% over the past year. 

Holders of ASX-listed gold ETFs have also strongly benefited from the recent gold price rally.

Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG) has risen 10% this month and 47% over the past year. 

Betashares Gold Bullion Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: QAU), which removes the impact of currency, is up 11% this month and 38% over the past year

Those who are optimistic that further rate cuts could drive additional support for the gold price might want to consider adding an ASX gold stock or ASX-listed gold-focused ETF to their portfolio.

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

A mining executive from Red Dirt Metals chats on her mobile phone looking pleased with a mining site and mining truck in the background
Gold

Up 53% since August, guess which ASX 200 gold stock is lifting today on 'key milestone'

The ASX 200 gold miner announced a ‘key milestone’ for its new WA gold mine.

Read more »

A miner holds up a mineral find as other workers look on,
Gold

Northern Star shares shining bright on $225 million gold exploration news

Northern Star is spending big to unearth more gold. Here’s what’s happening.

Read more »

A few gold nullets sit on an old-fashioned gold scale, representing ASX gold shares.
Gold

Up 75% this year, are Northern Star shares still a buy today?

A leading expert provides his outlook for Northern Star shares.

Read more »

A man clenches his fists in excitement as gold coins fall from the sky.
Gold

This ASX 300 gold stock is rocketing 27% amid takeover bidding war

This gold miner has received a new takeover offer.

Read more »

Miner with thumbs up at mine
Gold

Why this underdog ASX gold stock is one to watch

From ugly duckling to billion-dollar company, and there's more to come.

Read more »

A woman wearing a top of gold coins and large gold hoop earrings and a heavy gold bracelet stands amid a shower of gold coins with her mouth open wide and an excited look on her face.
Gold

70% of institutional investors expect gold price to rise in 2026

The gold price has soared by 60% in 2025 and a poll shows strong confidence that it will go higher.

Read more »

A few gold nullets sit on an old-fashioned gold scale, representing ASX gold shares.
Gold

Analysts split on whether this gold stock will go up – or down – 40%

Analysts at Macquarie and Jarden have run the ruler over this gold miner's newest project and came away with very…

Read more »

Three rockets heading to space
Mergers & Acquisitions

Guess which 10-bagger ASX gold stock is surging 65% today on takeover news

Investors are piling into this ASX gold miner on Tuesday. Let’s see why.

Read more »