Morgans says these ASX shares could rise 20% to 30%

Which shares is the broker bullish on? Let's dig deeper into things.

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A female broker in a red jacket whispers in the ear of a man who has a surprised look on his face as she explains which two ASX 200 shares should do well in today's volatile climate

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Key points

  • Morgans rates Accent Group as a BUY, anticipating high single-digit EBIT growth for FY26 despite a revised valuation of $1.65.
  • HMC Capital Ltd is considered undervalued, with Morgans setting a $4.20 price target and expressing confidence in significant growth prospects over the next 12 months.
  • Tyro Payments Ltd's solid FY25 results prompted an increased price target of $1.67, with Morgans maintaining a BUY rating due to expected EBITDA margin improvements.

Looking for some investment ideas? Then read on!

Listed below are three ASX shares that Morgans thinks are top buys this month. Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

Morgans believes this footwear focused retailer could be an ASX share to buy.

Although its FY 2025 result wasn't flash, it was in line with guidance. And with its sales turning positive early in FY 2026, the broker appears to see now as the time to buy. It said:

AX1's FY25 result was at the upper end of guidance with EBIT largely flat on the pcp. Sales turned negative in the 2H, and gross margins were weak driven by the highly promotional environment. Sales in the first 7 weeks of FY26 have turned positive and AX1 has provided guidance for FY26, expecting high single digit EBIT growth. AX1 plans to open 30 stores and 4 Sports Direct Stores, the first one opening in November in Melbourne. We have lowered our EBIT FY26 by 2%, with FY27 EBIT largely unchanged. This has been driven by lower store openings, higher gross margins, offset by lower costs.

Morgans has a buy rating and $1.65 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 21% from current levels.

HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC)

Another ASX share that gets the thumbs up from Morgans is diversified investment company HMC Capital.

The broker feels that its shares are cheap at current levels and sees potential for big returns over the next 12 months. It said:

With fires on multiple fronts (Health, Digital, Energy), HMC's outlook necessitates a period of consolidation, albeit real estate (equity / credit) can likely see FY26 FUM continue to grow. We see a conclusion to Healthscope negotiations (c.2H26) would put a floor on HCW; a material lease could get DGT back ontrack: while a sell-down and de-gearing of the Energy Transition Fund would provide external validation of value – all critical in restoring investor faith. At $3.27/sh, HMC screens cheap on both a multiple of earnings basis and relative to book value. The current price essentially implies that HMC is ex-growth with a questionable NTA – a view we do not share. So, whilst re-rating of the stock remains contingent on these elements coming to fruition, we believe it to be highly achievable over the next 12 months.

Morgans has a buy rating and $4.20 price target on its shares. This suggests that upside of almost 20% is possible between now and this time next year.

Tyro Payments Ltd (ASX: TYR)

Finally, payments company Tyro Payments is also being tipped as one to buy by Morgans.

It may have disappointed the market in FY 2025 but the broker remains positive. Especially given its improving margins. It said:

TYR's FY25 result was slightly below consensus expectations (-1%-2%) at revenue (A$486m) and EBITDA (A$61.5m), but more in line at NPAT (A$17.6m).  We saw this as a solid result overall, with continuing EBITDA margin improvement arguably the key positive highlight. We lift our normalised PBT forecasts by +15%/+5% over the next two years, mainly on higher EBITDA margin assumptions. We note our EPS forecasts are +15%/-26% over the same timeframe, with our FY27 forecast impacted by TYR beginning to pay tax (which is slightly earlier than we thought).

Morgans has a buy rating and $1.67 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of almost 40%.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Accent Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended HMC Capital and Tyro Payments. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and HMC Capital. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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