Why the blistering run higher for ASX 200 gold stocks may only just be warming up

If you thought the roaring bull market for ASX 200 gold stocks was winding down, think again.

Calculator and gold bars on Australian dollars, symbolising dividends.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have made some very happy investors over the past year.

In fact, four of the top performing stocks on the ASX 200 this past week were gold miners.

Part of the outsized gains the Aussie gold producers have delivered to shareholders stem from their own high quality assets and management teams.

And every miner has enjoyed strong tailwinds from the surging gold price.

On Friday, gold was trading near all-time highs (set earlier in the week) of US$3,552 per ounce. With bullion gaining 3% over the week just past, the gold price is now up more than 42% in 12 months.

The gold price – and ASX 200 gold stocks – have been leaping higher amid ongoing strong central bank bullion purchases, elevated safe haven demand fuelled by global uncertainties, and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will deliver more interest rate cuts in 2025.

Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling interest rate environment.

With the yellow metal screaming higher, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has surged a remarkable 71.4% since this time last year. For some context, the ASX 200 is up 11.0% over this same time.

Here's how these ASX 200 gold stocks have performed over the 12 months:

  • Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 37.0%
  • Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 49.8%
  • Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 57.4%
  • Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 117.6%
  • Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 128.2%
  • Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are down 22.2%
  • Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 72.2%
  • West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) are up 120.3%
  • Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are up 91.9%
  • Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares are up 147.4%

And this stellar performance doesn't even include the dividends many of the ASX 200 gold stocks paid out over the full year.

Now, here's why the big Aussie gold miners look well-placed to continue delivering outsized gains.

Why the ASX 200 gold stock rally could charge on into 2026

A number of prominent analysts are pointing to the disruptive actions of US President Donald Trump as likely helping fuel the next leg up for gold. This comes after Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook and amid ongoing uncertainty over Trump's global tariffs.

"These drivers bring back into focus the preference for gold over traditional safe‑haven assets like the US dollar and US bonds," Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) strategist Vivek Dhar said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

"We saw this play out in early April when Trump announced his tariffs, as gold surged, while the US dollar weakened," he added.

Commenting on the outlook for the yellow metal and ASX 200 gold stocks, Seb Mullins, head of multi-asset and fixed income in Australia for Schroders, said:

We have seen Trump spur investors to purchase gold as a way to protect portfolios from higher inflation or stagflation risks. This should bode well for gold miners, who have seen margins improve given the gold price has risen well above their cost base.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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