NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares have surged 66.7% since the recent closing low on 7 April.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) data centre operator and developer closed up 1.4% yesterday trading for $16.73 apiece.
This sees NextDC shares back in the green for the full year, up 1.8% in 12 months.
And according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the full year ahead could be a lot more profitable for shareholders.
Here's why.
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NextDC shares tipped to keep charging higher
If you were watching the boards, you may have noticed that NextDC shares rocketed 17.4% on Friday after the company reported it FY 2025 results.
Investors were piling into the ASX 200 data centre stock after the company reported a 6% increase in total revenue to $427.2 million. Net revenue was up 14% year-on-year to $350.2 million.
Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $216.7 million were up 6%, coming in at the upper end of guidance.
And NextDC achieved a record level of new contracted sales (72.2MW) over the year.
Looking to what could impact NextDC shares in the year ahead, the company provided FY 2026 guidance of net revenue in the range of $390 million to $400 million. That would be up 11.3% to 14.2% from FY 2025 net revenue.
Commenting on the outlook last week, NextDC managing director Craig Scroggie said:
FY26 will be a landmark year for NEXTDC as we make strategic investments to expand our platform, positioning us at the forefront of the digital infrastructure boom driven by the fourth industrial revolution…
As AI and cloud technologies increasingly drive global enterprise, the demand for speed, scalability, and reliability in digital infrastructure will continue to surge.
Why Macquarie is bullish on the ASX 200 AI stock
Following on these results, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on NextDC shares.
The broker expects that NextDC's build-to-suit AI assets will support levered returns in the years ahead.
Macquarie noted:
With balance sheet capacity to fund growth and earnings benefits in doing so, we believe priority for NextDC is to maintain group-level returns and withdraw any constraints to capture a strong demand environment.
Macquarie also expects partnerships, or joint ventures will help improve returns for NextDC shareholders.
"We believe JVs can reduce growth capex requirements by up to A$14.6b. This could drive positive group FCF [free cash flow] by early-FY30s," the broker said.
Then there's the record forward order book that expected to see revenue grow at all-time highs.
"Forward order book now at 134MW, of which ~85% is expected to bill by FY27, driving record revenue growth as cloud and AI," Macquarie said.
Macquarie is also bullish on NextDC's balance sheet, noting the company is well capitalised.
"NXT secured a new A$2.2b senior debt facility in August, bringing total debt to A$6.4b and pro-forma liquidity to A$5.5b…we have confidence in contract wins,' the broker said.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie raised its 12-month target price for NextDC shares to $22.30 (from $22.10). That represents a potential upside of 33.3% from Monday's closing price.
