Many of us would be familiar with paying the not-inexpensive fees that come along with private health insurance. But a few of us might be familiar with investing in the shares of the private health insurance companies that provide it, too. With the privatisation of Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) back in 2014, the ASX now has two major private health insurance shares that call it home.
Medibank remains the largest such provider. However, its rival NIB Holdings Ltd (ASX: NHF) is also a significant player in this space.
Both Medibank and NIB have proven to be lucrative investments in recent years. As it stands today, the Medibank share price has appreciated by an impressive 97.8% over the past five years. It trades on a solid (and fully franked) dividend yield of 3.58% right now.
NIB stock has fared similarly. It has gained 73.2% since this time in 2020 and currently has a yield of 3.8% (also fully franked).
Past gains are wonderful, of course. However, most ASX investors are, understandably, more concerned about what might be coming in the future.
Well, to examine that proposition, today, let's examine some comparative analysis of these two ASX health insurance stocks done by analysts at Macquarie Group.
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Medibank or NIB: Which ASX health insurance stock does this expert prefer?
Firstly, Macquarie's analysts found that the private health insurance space remains a defensive, if unspectacular, ground for investing. Although the analysts forecast spending growth in this space to decrease over the current financial year, its growth is forecast to only "slow slightly". That's despite an anticipated fall in immigration levels going forward.
Analysts concluded that ASX private health insurance shares "should serve as a relatively safe haven in a tougher economic environment, particularly as claims volumes remain lower in the short term".
Despite this, the analysts still have concerns regarding both Medibank and NIB, which are primarily based on valuation. They stated that "at current levels valuations do not appear attractive".
As a result, Macquarie has maintained a neutral rating on Medibank Private shares and an underperform rating on NIB stock.
Medibank was given a 12-month share price target of $4.70, which is around 6% lower than the $5 levels we are seeing presently.
Meanwhile, NIB was given a share price target of $5.60. If realised, that would see investors lose a nasty 26.7% from the $7.65 price the company is trading at today.
Let's see if Macquarie's preference for Medibank stock proves prudent.
