New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares are lifting today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock closed yesterday trading for $4.35. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $4.38 apiece, up 0.7%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time.
Taking a step back, New Hope shares remain down 12.5% over 12 months. Though that doesn't include the 41 cents per share in fully franked dividends the coal miner has paid out over the full year.
At the current share price, that sees New Hope trading on a juicy 9.4% trailing dividend yield.
Today's share price uptick follows on yesterday's 4.2% decline. That came as investors responded negatively to the miner's June quarter update.
Though Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) noted that both New Hope's quarterly cash result and earnings beat its own expectations.
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What did New Hope report?
New Hope shares were sold down yesterday despite the company reporting an 18.1% year-over-year increase in saleable coal production of 10.7 million tonnes in FY 2025, meeting guidance.
The ASX 200 miner's New Acland coal mine in Queensland saw production rocket 179% relative to FY 2024, while production at New Hope's flagship Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales slipped by 2%.
Quarterly earnings and New Hope shares took a hit from a reduction in the miner's realised selling price. This led to a 40% quarter-over-quarter decline in underlying operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $93.4 million.
For FY 2025, New Hope achieved underlying EBITDA of $765.8 million, down by 11% from FY 2024.
The company reported an available cash balance of $707 million as at 31 July.
Should you buy New Hope shares today?
Despite the decline, Macquarie increased its price target for New Hope shares by around 3%.
The broker noted:
4QFY25 underlying Ebitda of A$93m was a A$39m beat on our estimates, driven in part by Bengalla realised price result (we had expected weaker pricing). The cash result was also a beat, some A$0.1b higher than what we had expected.
Commenting on New Hope's ongoing $100 million share buyback program, Macquarie added:
NHC only spent A$9m of the A$100m buyback program at a A$3.60ps price, which is 17% below the current share price. Management commented the pace of the buy-back has slowed due to the company's prevailing share price. With a cash balance of A$0.7b … it remains to be seen how the Board will return capital at the September financial result.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie lifted its price target for New Hope shares to $4.00 and maintained its neutral rating on a moderating coal price outlook.
"The weaker Bengalla result was key disappointment. The commentary around the buy-back slowing pace implies NHC's competing needs for capital," the broker concluded.
