The TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG) share price is 1.03% lower at $5.285 a piece, at the time of writing.
Over the year, the TPG Telecom share price has traded 19.03% higher.
The telecommunications company was subject to an accidental trading halt last Wednesday due to an internal ASX error.
The ASX announced, at 9:47 am, that TPG Telecom shares were accidentally placed into a "60 minute timer" at 9:20 am in the morning. The ASX advised that "this was an internal error, please disregard".
On the same day the ASX also accidentally released an announcement, supposedly related to TPG Telecom, but which was actually for another company altogether.
Needless to say, over the past week, investors have taken a rollercoaster ride.
But hopefully, the latest broker note out of Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) can help put some minds at ease.
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Macquarie reinstates outperform rating on TPG Telecom shares
In the investor note, the broker upgraded its outlook on TPG Telecom shares to outperform. It also raised its 12-month target price to $5.80 per share, up from $5.30 previously.
At the time of writing, this new target price represents a potential 9.7% upside for investors.
"Valuation: Our DCF underpins our target price of A$5.80 ($4.19 ex-capital return), reflecting the above earnings changes and the below DCF inputs," Macquarie said.
"Outperform. Despite discounting, Postpaid SIOs return to growth in a rational pricing environment. Cost-out and reducing capital intensity drive mid-single-digit OFCF yields. This supports a growing dividend and deleveraging. Exposure to falling rates is an additional positive."
TPG Telecom's cash flow (FCF) profile is improving
Macquarie thinks mid-single-digit operating cash flow (OFCF) yield is achievable for TGP, supporting a growing dividend and ongoing deleveraging.
"Cost-out and lower capital intensity post-EGW sale provide more certainty of meaningful FCF growth over the next few years," the broker note said.
"A$100m of cost-out was reiterated, with 550 FTEs departing with the EGW sale. We see a mid-to-high-single-digit OFCF yield as reasonable on the new cash capex run-rate (post-FY27E) of A$550-650m. A new handset receivables financing deal presents further upside to FCF."
With debt recently refinanced at lower rates and the majority of debt unhedged (similar to FY24: ~73%), the broker says TPG Telecom is favourably exposed to falling rates.
"In the near term, reinvestment take-up will affect deleveraging; in the medium term, improving cash flows are the key driver," Macquarie said.
