Experts debate impact of US tariffs on Breville shares

Breville makes about 90% of its products, by value, in China, and sells 45% of them into the US.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) shares are $35.23, up 1.29%, on Tuesday.

The Australian kitchen appliances manufacturer is outperforming the market today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) up 0.11%.

Breville designs, manufactures, and distributes kitchen appliances, such as coffee machines and blenders, across the world.

On The Bull, Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth said he has a sell rating on Breville shares due to the recently implemented US tariffs.

Breville makes about 90% of its products, by value, in China, and the rest is manufactured in the European Union, Mexico, and Taiwan.

Breville sells about 45% of its inventory in the US.

Halligan says the US tariffs could result in "significant headwinds" for the ASX 200 consumer discretionary share.

Not only might tariffs dig into Breville's profits, they may also lead to slower economic growth worldwide if they reignite inflation.

Halligan explains his sell rating on Breville shares:

Any global economic slowdown may cut consumer spending and impact Breville sales.

BRG should continue paying a modest dividend.

But the US tariff outlook constantly changes and creates uncertainty.

man and woman have a discussion on a tablet in a transportation warehouse

Image source: Getty Images

How will US tariffs impact Breville?

When US President Donald Trump first announced the reciprocal tariffs in April, Breville shares were among the worst hit on the day.

Breville was among the first ASX 200 companies to issue a statement about how the new US tariffs may impact its business.

At the time, the US had announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on imports from China, 20% for the European Union, and 32% for Taiwan.

Goods from Mexico that complied with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remained exempt, while most non-compliant USMCA goods would have a 25% tariff.

At the time, Breville said it was already "well progressed" on a project to diversify its manufacturing base.

Breville said it had been considering Indonesia and Cambodia as potential new manufacturing locations, as well as expansion in Mexico.

In April, the US announced a 32% tariff on Indonesia and a 49% tariff on Cambodia.

Breville said it would monitor the situation and make decisions as the US tariff policy evolved.

And evolve it did.

Breville benefits from revised tariffs

Earlier this month, the US released a revised list of reciprocal tariffs after the President negotiated several deals.

The 34% tariff for China remained in place, as did the arrangements with Mexico.

But the tariffs in all the other nations relevant to Breville's existing manufacturing facilities and potential future locations fell.

This was positive news for Breville, although the company will still be impacted by the tariffs to some extent.

The US reduced the reciprocal tariff on the European Union from 20% (and a threatened 30%) to 15%.

The US also reduced the tariff on Taiwan from 32% to 20%.

Indonesia's tariff dropped to 19% from 32%.

Cambodia got a big cut, down from 49% to 19%.

There have been no further statements from Breville about US tariffs since that initial response in April.

Some analysts are positive on Breville shares

Morgan Stanley analysts have retained their overweight rating on Breville shares. They have a 12-month price target of $36.50.

The broker believes any impact from US tariffs will be manageable because Breville has options to offset the new costs through price increases, altering the product mix, and implementing cost efficiencies.

UBS also has a buy rating on Breville shares with a price target of $35.50.

What's next for Breville shares?

According to our earnings season calendar, Breville will release its full-year FY25 results on Wednesday, 20 August.

It's likely that Breville's CEO, Jim Clayton, and Group CFO, Martin Nicholas, will face questions about the tariffs during an investor and analyst call scheduled on the day.

The Breville share price has risen by 23% over the past year.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A close up of a casino card dealer's hands shuffling a deck of cards at a professional gambling table with the eager faces of casino patrons in the background.
Share Gainers

Why is everyone buying Tabcorp shares this week?

Here's what is driving the latest price momentum for Tabcorp shares, and what to expect next.

Read more »

A group of people clink wine glasses in an outdoor, late afternoon setting to celebrate the rising Treasury Wine share price
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why are Treasury Wine shares rocketing 16% today?

Investors are piling into Treasury Wine shares on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

A happy couple drinking red wine in a vineyard.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Treasury Wine Estates improves depletions and unveils regional model

Treasury Wine Estates improves depletions momentum and announces a new global operating model alongside key leadership changes.

Read more »

Woman chooses vegetables for dinner, smiling and looking at camera.
Broker Notes

3 reasons to buy Coles shares today

A leading analyst expects Coles shares are well-placed to outperform. But why?

Read more »

A woman looks quizzical while looking at a dollar sign in the air.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Is the Coles share price an opportunity too good to pass up?

Could Coles be a strong performer in the coming months?

Read more »

A woman in jeans and a casual jumper leans on her car and looks seriously at her mobile phone while her vehicle is charged at an electic vehicle recharging station.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why fuel prices could be quietly powering this ASX car stock higher

But it’s not a simple case of “EV demand up, share price up”.

Read more »

A group of three young men sit on a sofa in a home environment with a bowl of popcorn and beer bottles in front of them cheering on one of their teams on a phone.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Guess which ASX stock is closing in on its multi-year high

Tabcorp shares are back near their highs after a strong 12-month run.

Read more »

Woman with headphones on relaxing and looking at her phone happily.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Morgans just initiated coverage on this consumer discretionary stock with a buy rating

This newly listed ASX stock has strong upside, according to Morgans.

Read more »