Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are flat at $5.23 a piece at the time of writing.
So far in 2026, the shares are down 1.13% and they're a huge 50.75% lower than the price they were trading at this time last year.
What happened to Treasury Wine Estates shares in 2025?
Treasury Wine Estates shares were one of the worst performers on the ASX 200 Index in 2025. Throughout the 12-month period, the share price gradually and consistently tumbled as overall weaker global demand for wine, higher costs, and disappointing earnings all weighed on the share price.
Last month, the company released an investor update and outlook for the first half of FY26. It said that trading conditions have weakened in recent months, particularly in the US and China.
The company's CEO, Sam Fischer, said, "We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment."
And as a result, the wine giant said that near-term improvement is now considered unlikely.
The company has reset expectations for its sales volume growth. Treasury Wine Estates now expects its earnings before interest and tax to be between $225 million and $235 million in H1 FY26. Although it still anticipates better performance in the second half of the year.
Management has also begun cutting costs to help combat the weaker trading conditions. Fischer launched a company-wide cost-cutting program called TWE Ascent shortly after his appointment to the role late last year. The program hopes to optimise the company's portfolio, improve operating models, and reduce costs by approximately $100 million per year. However, the benefits of the cost savings won't be seen until FY27.
Is there any upside for the wine giant in 2026?
Although Treasury Wine Estates shares performed poorly in 2025, many brokers think a lot of the bad news is already priced in.
It looks like the shares have well and truly reached the bottom. But I'm on the fence about whether we'll see much material upside over the next 12 months.
But the experts are divided. TradingView data shows that 12 out of 17 analysts have a hold rating on the stock. The other five have a buy or strong buy rating on Treasury Wine Estates shares.
The average 12-month target price is $5.51, which implies a potential 4% upside for investors at the time of writing. However, some think the share price could nearly double to $8.55 by this time next year. That implies a potential 61.32% upside from the current trading price.
While there is no crystal ball to predict exactly what will happen, with much of last year's headwinds already factored into the stock, any resurgence in investor interest could only push the share price upwards this year.
