How much upside does Macquarie see for AMP shares after its result?

The company released its H1 2025 results on Thursday.

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The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price is 2.29% higher this morning. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 share is changing hands at $1.79 a piece. For the year, AMP's share price is trading 39.84% higher.

The share price rise follows the company's 1H 2025 results released yesterday morning. The announcement sparked an initial sell-off before finishing 4.8% higher for the day on Thursday.

AMP H1 2025 results recap

AMP posted a revenue increase of 1.8% to $632 million for the half.

Its underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) was 9.2% higher for the half-year period to $131 million, while the Group's statutory NPAT slumped 4.9% to $98 million.

Underlying EPS was up 18.2% to 5.2 cents per share, reflecting improved earnings and the final stages of the share buyback. The board has resolved to declare a 1H 25 dividend of 2 cents per share, 20% franked. 

Following the results, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) sent a note to investors revealing what it thinks of the stock.

Macquarie's stance on AMP shares

The broker confirmed its neutral rating at a $1.70 target price on AMP shares. At the time of writing, that represents a potential 5.02% downside for investors over the next 12 months.

"12-month price target unchanged at A$1.70 on a PE methodology," it said in its note.

"Valuation fair: Pre-result, AMP traded at a ~14.3x 12-month forward P/E, ~2% above the 3-yr average of ~14.1x. This translated to a ~28% discount vs the ASX100 (compared with the 3-year average discount of ~11%)."

Macquarie also commented that AMP's 1H25 result missed expectations, led by higher controllable costs and a lower mark on US Real Estate investments in Partnerships in the prior corresponding period.

Despite this, FY25 guidance was largely unchanged.

"Guidance was unchanged for controllable costs and revenue margins in the S&I and Platforms. Bank NIMs were upgraded to 130bps vs. ~126bps previously, with margins continuing to be prioritised over GLAA growth," the broker said.

Macquarie also commented that there was no change to commentary on capital, with FY25 dividends pre-released and further decisions contingent on the class action.

The broker revised earnings changes for FY25E +5.9% reflecting higher investment income; and -1.9% to +0.6% thereafter reflecting minor modelling adjustments.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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