Down 30% since April, should I buy the dip on Northern Star shares today?

A leading expert delivers his verdict on Northern Star shares.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $16.27. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $16.02 apiece, down 1.6%.

That leaves the Northern Star share price up 12.1% since this time last year.

This beats the 10.2% one-year gains delivered by the ASX 200.

But it significantly underperforms the 38.7% 12-month gains posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD), with most gold stocks surging higher alongside the fast-rising gold price.

Gold is currently trading for US$3,368 per ounce, up 40.5% in a year.

Now, we shouldn't forget about Northern Star's dividends.

Over the past year, the ASX 200 gold miner paid out two dividends totalling 50 cents per share. That sees Northern Star trading at an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 3.2%.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

With Northern Star shares now down 30.4% since trading at all-time closing highs of $23.01 a share on 22 April, is the miner now trading for a bargain?

A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy the big dip on Northern Star shares?

Morgans' Damien Nguyen recently offered his verdict on the ASX 200 gold miner (courtesy of The Bull).

"NST is one of Australia's leading gold producers," Nguyen said, commenting before the release of Northern Star's June quarterly update on Thursday.

"The stock was recently down by almost 30% from its 2025 peak, driven by softer-than-expected production and a cost-heavy outlook for fiscal year 2026," he noted.

Indeed, on 7 July, Northern Star shares closed down 8.7% after management forecast that FY 2026 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) will be in the range of AU$2,300 to AU$2,700 per ounce, significantly higher than in FY 2025.

But it's not all doom and gloom for the Aussie gold mining giant.

"Operational challenges at key sites and planned shutdowns raised concerns, but the company still delivered within guidance for fiscal year 2025 and maintains a strong balance sheet," Nguyen said.

At its June quarterly update on Thursday, the company reported cash and bullion holdings of $1.914 billion as at 30 June.

"For existing investors, it may be worth staying the course," said Nguyen, who has a hold recommendation on Northern Star shares.

"Combined with a positive outlook for gold prices, the company has scale and solid assets which could support a recovery in its share price once operational headwinds ease," he concluded.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

Stacked gold bricks.
Gold

This ASX gold technology company could rise by more than a third, RBC Capital Markets says

The potential market for this company is large, the broker says.

Read more »

3D render of gold dollar with arrow sign.
Gold

Why are Northern Star shares rocketing 8% on Wednesday?

Northern Star shares surge on takeover speculation.

Read more »

Smiling Indian manager leaning on chair.
Gold

Up 250% in 12 months, Bell Potter says this ASX 200 gold stock can rise another 73%

This gold stock hasn't peaked yet according to the broker.

Read more »

Businessman planning and analysing investment data.
Gold

Is the Northern Star share price a cheap buy?

I take a closer look at whether this gold share still offers value after Yesterday's jump.

Read more »

Judge's gavel and justice scales
Gold

Guess which ASX stock is rocketing 46% today

This gold explorer is making headlines.

Read more »

Gold bullion leaning on a stack of gold ingots.
Gold

Why I'd buy the dip in top ASX 200 gold stocks like Newmont, Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares today

I think the recent pullback in top ASX gold stocks like Evolution Mining presents an opportune buying opportunity.

Read more »

Stacked gold bricks.
Gold

If I'd put $3k in this ASX 200 gold stock 12 months ago, I'd have $12,500 now

The gold shares have slid lower on Thursday, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Read more »

Two miners examine things they have taken out the ground.
Gold

$10,000 invested in Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Here’s how the three-year returns from Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares stack up.

Read more »