Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are pushing higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $19.51. As we head into the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $19.56 apiece, up 0.3%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.5% at this same time.
Northern Star shares remain up 6.8% over 12 months – not including the two partly franked dividends totalling 55 cents per share – despite the horror month the miner just experienced.
Hit with stiff headwinds from a fast-falling gold price and negative investor reaction to its decreased FY 2026 production guidance, shares in the ASX 200 gold stock are down a steep 38.4% since market close on 2 March.
That compares to an 8.4% decline in the ASX 200 and a 30.0% drop in the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) over this period.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
After plunging more than 38% in a month, is the Aussie gold mining giant now a bargain buy?
Image source: Getty Images
Should you buy Northern Star shares today?
MPC Markets' Mark Gardner recently analysed the outlook for the ASX 200 gold miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"The gold company has been punished for downgrading gold production," he said. "Mechanical and equipment issues at its flagship Kalgoorlie operation have been frustrating, and the market has lost patience."
Indeed, Northern Star shares closed down 18.8% on 13 March after miner announced that, due to the issues Gardner mentions above, it now expects FY 2026 gold production of at least 1.50 million ounces. That was down from full year guidance of 1.60 million to 1.70 million ounces of gold reported on 2 January, which was already revised downwards from earlier guidance of 1.70 to 1.85 million ounces.
But Gardner notes that the long-term outlook for investing in the ASX 200 gold stock remains in place.
"However, Northern Star still owns one of the best gold assets in the world and its long-term reserve base is intact," he said.
Gardner also pointed to the impact of the Iran war as potentially offering a good buying opportunity for Northern Star shares.
"The conflict in Iran has also generated indiscriminate selling in gold miners that history tends to show as a buying opportunity," he noted.
Amid the prospect of rising interest rates, and as investors the world over have tapped into liquid assets to meet their financial obligations, the gold price has plunged 15% since 2 March, currently trading for US$4,518 per ounce.
Commenting on his current hold recommendation on Northern Star, Gardner concluded, "Operational problems are temporary, and we expect the gold price to improve moving forward."
