Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) shares have an enviable long-term track record.
Corporate Travel Management is a global provider of travel solutions spanning corporate, events, leisure, loyalty and wholesale travel.
Over the past 5 years, Corporate Travel Management shares have risen 80%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 42% over the same time frame.
For the year to date, the ASX All Ords travel stock has also outperformed the index by a wide margin. It is up 16%, compared to 5% for the ASX 200.
But can this run continue?
Let's see what one expert had to say.
Macquarie rates Corporate Travel Management as neutral
In a 10 July research note, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) provided its outlook for Corporate Travel Management shares.
The broker reiterated its neutral rating on the stock.
Macquarie also set a price target of $15.80 on the ASX travel stock. Given that shares closed yesterday at $15.44, this suggests a 7% upside over the next 12 months.
When affirming its rating, the broker said:
The operating environment is volatile with low visibility into client activity levels particularly in North America. Until there is more certainty on the outlook, we retain our Neutral recommendation with a range of earnings outcomes possible from here in FY25-26.
On 2 May, as reported by The Motley Fool's Bernd Struben, the company downgraded its EBITDA guidance by 15% to ~$167m, citing the negative impact of economic and tariff uncertainty in North America and Asia. According to Macquarie, travel activity levels have been relatively solid since then, based on data tracked by the broker.
However, Macquarie suggested North America could continue to provide headwinds:
While overall US passenger volumes have been solid, we expect CTD's corporate business has been impacted by reduced travel from the US to Mexico (down 7% YoY in June) and Canada (down ~6.5% YoY in Mar-Apr and deteriorated further in May-Jun, now down ~13%).
Macquarie also said conflict in the Middle East could provide a small headwind but did not see material disruption.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects Corporate Travel's outlook to improve in FY26.
What to buy instead?
While Macquarie does see 7% upside for Corporate Travel Management shares over the next 12 months, there are other opportunities in the market with more upside.
Those set on the ASX travel sector should consider Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT). Macquarie currently has an outperform rating on the stock and a price target of $16.05. Given that Flight Centre shares are currently changing hands for $13.30, that suggests 24% upside from here.
