Wondering whether to invest in Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), or BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares?
You're not alone.
Each of the three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stocks could prove to be an excellent long-term holding.
And each one trades on an attractive fully franked dividend yield.
As for their year-to-date returns, Rio Tinto shares closed up 0.96% on Thursday, trading for $108.62 each. That sees the Rio Tinto share price down 8.0% year to date.
Fortescue shares closed up 1.91% yesterday at $16.51. This leaves the Fortescue share price down 12% in 2025.
And BHP shares joined the rally, closing up 1.19% at $38.30 apiece. That sees shares in the ASX 200 mining giant down 4% year to date.
But looking to the months ahead, the analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) only expect one of the big three miners to outperform.
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Should I buy Rio Tinto, Fortescue, or BHP shares?
In Macquarie's Diversified Miners report, published on Wednesday, the broker said it expects Rio Tinto to "to miss on iron ore [consensus expectations by] (-3%) and bauxite (-3%), with copper production largely in line (-2%)".
Macquarie has a neutral rating on Rio Tinto shares with a $105.00 price target. That's 3% below Thursday's closing price.
The broker expects Fortescue to beat consensus. "We forecast FMG to beat iron ore consensus by 10% at 57.1mt with realised pricing of US$82.0/t in line," it said.
Nonetheless, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Fortescue shares with a $15.00 price target, which is 9% below yesterday's closing price.
As for BHP shares, Macquarie also expects Australia's biggest miner to beat on iron ore, stating:
We expect BHP iron ore production to beat by 3% while metallurgical coal production to beat by 2%. We anticipate copper and thermal coal output to be in line with VA consensus at 500kt and 3.6mt, respectively.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on BHP shares with a $40.00 price target. That represents a potential upside of 4% from Thursday's closing price.
What else did Macquarie have to say about BHP?
Summarising its preference for BHP shares over rivals Rio Tinto and Fortescue, Macquarie said:
With BHP currently presenting a relatively more stable and execution focussed offering versus RIO (whilst the RIO CEO succession process reaches a conclusion), we are drawn to BHP's lower cost asset position and lower iron ore beta (with Simandou coming online).
Its near-term thinner FVCF [future value free cash flow] yield versus RIO may be ameliorated by asset or infrastructure sell downs to finance growth, whilst RIO's inorganic growth strategy is currently unclear, presenting a risk to investors.
