S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have enjoyed a stellar bull run this past year.
And, as we'll look at below, that remarkable run may only just be getting started.
Using the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – as an example, the All Ords Gold Index has surged 50.8% since this time last year.
That's almost five times the 10.4% gains posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.
The unifying tailwind here, as you're likely aware, is the surging gold price.
One year ago, gold was trading for US$2,359 per ounce. On Tuesday, that same ounce was trading for US$3,332. Or a gain of 41.3%.
Here's how some of the leading ASX 200 gold stocks have performed over this same period (as at market close on 8 July):
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 32.0%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 40.6%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares are up 26.9%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 79.3%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 109.1%
- Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 45.9%
- Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are down 50.2%
- West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) are up 64.0%
With the sole exception of Bellevue Gold shares – which have caught headwinds amid the miner's significant capital expenditure to develop its Bellevue gold project in Western Australia – you're unlikely to hear any stockholders complaining about the performance of their ASX 200 gold stock holdings this past year.
Now, the big question facing ASX investors today is, can the Aussie gold miners keep roaring higher in the year ahead?
Why ASX 200 gold stocks can keep shining bright into 2026
If Daan Stryuven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, has it right, ASX 200 gold stocks could enjoy significantly higher gold prices in the months ahead.
"We still expect the gold price to rise to US$4,000 per troy ounce, so that's another 20% of upside from here," Stryuven said last week.
And gold investors have central banks to thank.
According to Stryuven:
The main reason is really structurally higher demand from central banks. Central bank buying of gold has increased five-fold since '22 when Russia's central bank reserves got frozen.
And we just got the survey a couple of months ago surveying more than 70 central banks across the world, and the survey showed record high purchase intentions with no central bank that was surveyed indicating that they would reduce their gold holdings over the next 12 months.
Stryuven said a growing number of nations are working to diversify their holdings out of the US dollar.
"I think the big potential winner from further dollar diversification is gold," he said.
And in what would be excellent news for investors in ASX 200 gold stocks, Stryuven added, "The next giant leap for gold markets could be private investors, who often feel like they're overallocated to the dollar, may reallocate to some extent out of dollar holdings into gold."
According to Stryuven:
That could be the next giant leap for gold markets because the gold market is 200 times smaller than the US S&P 500. It's 100 times smaller than the US treasury market. So, you only need a very small shift of flows into the much smaller gold market to cause very significant gold price upside.
And if the gold price needs any other tailwinds, Stryuven said, "It's also a great hedge against several of the key risks including tariff escalation or concerns about US fiscal sustainability."
