Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed yesterday trading for $23.63. As we head into the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $23.54 apiece, down 0.4%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up a slender 0.1% at this same time.
As you're likely aware, Woodside shares have been under pressure over the past 12 months, largely due to slumping oil prices amid a building global supply glut. Brent crude oil is currently trading for US$67.61 per barrel. That's down from just over US$82 per barrel in mid-January.
And forecasts of a looming gas (LNG) oversupply haven't helped matters either.
In the face of these headwinds, shares in the ASX 200 energy giant have slumped 16.3% over the past full year. Though those losses will have been somewhat eased by the $1.87 a share in fully franked dividends the company shelled out over the past 12 months.
It's also worth noting that the share price has surged 19.3% since market close on 22 April, following the release of the company's strong first-quarter results.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
How much upside does Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) tip for Woodside shares following the past two months' rally and amid a rather uninspiring outlook for global energy prices?
What's Macquarie's forecast for Woodside shares?
In a research report released on Friday, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Woodside stock.
The broker noted, "Our lacklustre oil outlook and now more bearish view on spot LNG prices in 2027/28 makes it difficult to become more positive."
But the XRG Consortium's (led by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and global private equity firm Carlyle) $30 billion takeover proposal of all Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares could throw up some tailwinds for Woodside shares over the weeks ahead.
"WDS shares are set to benefit from flow as the ADNOC/Carlyle takeover of STO progresses and eventually moves to binding," Macquarie said.
The broker has a 12-month target price of $24.00 a share on Woodside. That represents a potential upside of 2% from current levels. And it doesn't include the upcoming dividends.
Why did the ASX 200 energy stock lift on its quarterly results?
As mentioned up top, ASX investors responded positively to the company's first-quarter results, sending Woodside shares up 3.6% on the day.
"We maintained world-class operational performance across our portfolio of high-quality assets, with Sangomar further boosting quarterly revenue through exceptional production of 78 thousand barrels per day at almost 98% reliability," CEO Meg O'Neill said of the three-month run.
With a look to the future, she added, "Significant progress was made on our major growth projects, all of which are proceeding to schedule and within budget."
