How much upside does Macquarie tip for Seek shares?

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares have outperformed the market for the year to date. 

At the time of writing, Seek has risen 4.6% this year, compared to 3.5% for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). 

It is one of three online classified businesses listed on the ASX, along with REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) and Car Group Ltd (ASX: CAR). 

It generates revenue primarily through its online marketplace by charging employers for posting job advertisements. If you've looked for a new job in the past few years, chances are you've come across Seek's portal. 

Over the past 5 years, Seek shares have underperformed the ASX 200 Index, rising just 9% compared to 43% for the index.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Let's see what broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) had to say.

On 19 June, the broker issued an outperform rating on the stock and placed a $26.75 price target on the ASX 200 share. Given that shares are changing hands for $23.91 at the time of writing, this suggests a 12% upside (including both capital gains and dividends). 

The broker cited Australian job ad volumes for May to support this target. 

Specifically, Australian job ad volumes declined 6% year over year in May and are tracking 10% down for FY25 for the year to date. 

The broker said:

We remain positive on the outlook for Seek, with job ad volume declines narrowing throughout FY25 and with an expectation for a return to growth in FY26, driven by rate cuts in Australia and a tight labour market. 

Yield (price + depth) is also strong following new product developments launched in April, which were showcased at the recent investor day.

What are other experts saying?

The Motley Fool's Bronwyn Allen recently reported that Blackwattle Investment Partners believes 2025 was shaping up as "a potential turning point" for Seek.

The fund manager cited positive news revealed during the company's Investor Day on 21 May.

At that event, the company announced it was on track to deliver FY25 revenue and earnings in the top half of its guidance ranges. Specifically, management guided for revenue of between $1.06 billion to $1.1 billion, and profit of $135 million to $160 million. 

This boosted investor sentiment, with the stock up 7% since Seek's investor day.

Should I buy REA Group instead?

Macquarie also recently affirmed its price target for fellow online classifieds business REA Group. 

Macquarie trimmed its 12-month price target on REA shares to $265, down from $270 in February.

With REA Group shares changing hands for $235 today, this suggests similar upside to Seek shares.