APA Group (ASX: APA) shares have been on form this year.
Since the start of 2025, the energy infrastructure company's shares have risen 17%.
This compares favourably to a 2.5% gain by the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).
Can APA shares keep rising?
The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has been running the rule over the company and has given its verdict on its shares.
Unfortunately, while the broker continues to have an outperform rating on APA shares, it thinks they are fully valued at current levels.
According to the note, Macquarie has retained its $8.14 price target, which is a touch below its current share price of $8.23.
The reason it is retaining its outperform rating is its belief that APA Group's balance sheet will be able to drive solid earnings growth in the coming years. And with a very generous dividend yield on offer, the broker appears to believe it is worth getting paid to wait.
Commenting on its growth outlook, the broker said:
Pipeline continues to brim with opportunities, with some hope the Pilbara and ECG will have projects coming to FID. GPG is a new opportunity, both with partners and direct, as APA develops an infrastructure model for the asset. Outperform. B/S has capacity to fund $0.6bn pa, with asset recycling enabling additional spend. We see unrisked pipeline remains at +$6bn.
Big dividend yields
As I mentioned above, Macquarie believes that APA is going to continue its long history of dividend increases and will provide investors with big dividend yields in the coming years.
After paying out 56 cents per share in FY 2024, the broker expects the company to lift its dividend to 57 cents per share in FY 2025. Based on its current share price of $8.23, this would mean a dividend yield of 6.9%.
After which, the broker believes APA Group will lift its dividend to 58 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 59 cents per share in FY 2027. If this proves accurate, it will mean dividend yields of 7% and 7.15%, respectively.
Commenting on its outperform rating, the broker concludes:
Outperform. Yield is 7.1%; asset recycling is a positive initiative. The structural change is that gas is needed for the transition, and there is political support for it to not be connected to global pricing. APA ECG expansion facilitates this and should ensure increased contracting.
