At $31.04 (at the time of writing), it's hard to believe this is where the Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) share price sits today.
It's hard to believe because, at this price, Woolworths shares are 11.6% below where they were five years ago. Yep, this time in 2021, this ASX 200 blue chip stock was going for $34.90 a share. Back in the middle of 2021, Woolies stock was over $40. That means the company remains down by about 25% from that high.
All in all, it has not been a good time to have owned shares of the 'Fresh Food People' over the past five years.
Woolworths has arguably gone through one of the toughest five-year periods of its recent history. The company has been dragged down by a litany of unfortunate events. Some were inside Woolworths' control, others outside.
For one, investor concerns about several aspects of Woolworths' business have come to the fore in recent times, most notably the sluggish performance of the company's Big W and New Zealand divisions.
For another, the company has continually seen its leading position in the Australian grocery market erode in recent years, mostly to the benefit of its arch-rival Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).
The somewhat botched transition from former CEO Bradford Banducci to current CEO Amanda Bardwell didn't help matters. Nor did the company's most recent earnings report.
Image source: Getty Images
Woolworths share price: You won't believe these dividend predictions
Back in August, we covered Woolworths' full-year report for FY2025. Although this report contained some bright spots, there were areas of concern, too. The company did report a 3.6% rise in year-over-year revenue to $69.1 billion. However, thanks in part to a rise in costs and a gross margin slip, earnings before interest and tax in FY 2025 dropped by 12.6% to $2.75 billion. On the bottom line, net profit after tax fell 17.1% to $1.39 billion.
This all led Woolies to cut its final dividend for 2025 by 21.1% to 45 cents per share (fully franked). Over the entire year, Woolworths paid out a total of 84 cents per share. That was a 19.2% reduction on the $104 shareholders bagged over 2024 (disregarding the 40-cent special dividend).
But what is perhaps harder to believe than Woolworths' dismal share price performance in recent years is where analysts see the company's dividend heading next.
Last month, my Fool colleague looked at some analyst projections for the Woolworths dividend. And it makes for some exciting reading. Consensus estimates for the company's payouts going forward are reprtedly a fully-franked dividend total of 99.5 cents per share over 2026. That's obviously a rapid rebound from the dividend cut investors endured last year.
From there, analysts anticipate Woolworths could pay out $1.13 in dividends per share in 2027, followed by $1.35 in 2028. If accurate, those payouts would represent year-on-year dividend increases of 18.45%, 13.57%, and 19.46%, respectively.
If Woolworths does indeed fund those payouts, it would give the stock forward dividend yields of 3.21%, 3.64%, and 4.35% at current pricing. That's opposed to the company's present, trailing dividend yield of 2.7%.
However, we'll have to wait and see if these analyst predictions are on the money.
