S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stock Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) is slipping today.
With investors likely eyeing today's revival of the Trump tariffs, Capstone Copper shares are down 1.5% during the Friday lunch hour, changing hands for $8.56 apiece.
That sees the Capstone Copper share price down 22.5% over 12 months. Among the headwinds facing the miner, the copper price has retraced from US$10,457 per tonne a year ago to US$9,568 per tonne today, down 8.5%.
Although investors who bought the copper stock at the recent 9 April closing low will now be sitting on gains of 38.8% today.
And it may not be too late to ride this surging copper miner higher.
If the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have it right, investors buying the ASX 200 copper stock at today's levels could enjoy some outsized gains over the year ahead.
Here's why.
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ASX 200 copper stock tipped to outperform
In a research report on the Australian copper miners published on Thursday, Macquarie said that Capstone Copper "is our preferred copper exposure".
Commenting on the outlook for the ASX 200 copper stock, Macquarie's analysts noted:
One of the imminent catalysts for CSC is the receipt of the DIA permit amendment for Mantoverde Optimised (MV-O) which is likely to be approved in mid-CY25 (i.e., within the next ~2 months) and will allow for a permitted increase milling capacity from 32ktpd to 45ktpda.
In our view, it is a positive signal that CSC is currently planning to order US$60m of long-lead items (out of a total capex budget of US$146m) in anticipation of receiving approvals.
Macquarie is referring to Capstone Copper's application to amend its existing Environmental Impact Declaration at its Mantoverde copper mine, located in Chile.
According to Capstone, if it receives the green light to modify its permit, it will be able to increase its mill capacity from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day "without significant capital equipment upgrades, leveraging existing infrastructure".
The ASX 200 copper stock also said this would increase the mine's operational life from 19 to 25 years.
As for its most recent performance, when Capstone Copper released its March quarter results earlier this month, CEO John MacKenzie said, "Our operations got off to a solid start in the first quarter, marked by record sulphide copper production from both Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos, as we achieved record revenues and EBITDA."
Adding the dots, Macquarie retained its outperformance recommendation on the ASX 200 copper stock, with a $11.60 per share 12-month price target. That represents a potential upside of 35.5% from the current Capstone Copper share price.
