It's been a great year to own almost any S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock.
And both the miners and their shareholders have the surging gold price to thank.
Gold kicked off 2025 trading for US$2,625 per ounce, having already gained 44% in 2024.
On Wednesday, that same ounce was trading for US$3,296, up another 25.6% year to date.
That meteoric rise has seen the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – surge by 48% this calendar year.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up a more muted 3% in 2025.
Of course, not every gold share is created equal.
With an eye to the year ahead, we look at one Aussie gold miner to sell and one to buy to make the most of the near-record gold prices.
One ASX 200 gold stock to sell
Starting on the sell side, we have Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).
The Regis Resources share price closed on Wednesday at $4.91. That sees the share price up a whopping 93% in 2025.
But according to Ord Minnett's Tony Paterno, shareholders would do well to think about cashing in some gains (courtesy of The Bull).
"Regis is the highest cost, shortest life gold miner under our coverage and is now unhedged," said Paterno, who has a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 gold stock.
"Regis is fully leveraged to the gold price, which can move in either direction," he said.
Paterno noted:
The company reported a net profit after tax of $88 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025 compared to a $92 million loss in the prior corresponding period. Gold production fell 11% in the 2025 first half when compared to the prior corresponding period and gold sold was down 6%.
With Regis Resources' sharp year-to-date share price increase in mind, Paterno concluded, "The stock has rallied strongly in calendar year 2025 and, in our view, is expensive compared to peers… Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains."
A preferred gold major
Turning to the ASX 200 gold stock to buy, last week Sequoia Wealth Management's Peter Day tipped Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
Northern Star shares closed yesterday trading for $20.48 apiece. That sees the Northern Star share price up 33% in 2025.
Explaining part of that underperformance to date relative to the All Ords Gold Index, Day said, "This Australian gold miner recently downgraded full year 2025 production guidance in response to operational challenges at its Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines."
Day explained:
The company cut full year production to between 1.63 million ounces and 1.66 million ounces. Previous guidance was between 1.65 million ounces and 1.8 million ounces. Cost guidance was revised upwards. Delayed access to the Golden Pike North zone contributed to the revision.
However, with Northern Star's cost and production revisions appearing to be one-off issues, Day said that investors overreacted to the news by selling down the ASX 200 gold stock.
"We note the issues driving the adjustment aren't systemic and unlikely to materially hinder the future growth pipeline," he said. "We believe the Northern Star share price sell-off was overdone."
Day concluded, "Northern Star remains our preferred gold major."
