Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are a popular option in the mining sector for investors.
But popular doesn't necessarily mean good.
Sure, Fortescue has delivered good returns for investors in the past, but that certainly hasn't been the case recently. Anyone buying the iron ore giant's shares a year ago would have experienced a decline of almost 40%.
So, with its shares down in the dumps, is this an opportunity for investors to buy Fortescue shares?
Let's see what analysts are saying about the miner.
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Are Fortescue shares a buy, hold, or sell?
The team at Bell Potter has been running the rule over the company's shares following the release of its quarterly update.
In respect to the update, the broker said:
FMG has delivered a production result sufficient to keep it on track for the low end of guidance and cost pressures appear to be easing, including when we back out the exchange rate tailwinds. Uncertainty over the outlook for Iron Bridge (ramp-up under review) and the adjustment of timelines for Fortescue Energy projects due to uncertain policy settings are overhangs on the stock but, in our view, are relatively immaterial to valuation given 1): the relatively small production contribution from Iron Bridge; and 2): the unclear commercial cases for Fortescue Energy projects.
In light of this, Bell Potter has retained its hold rating with a trimmed price target of $16.79. This is just a touch higher than where its shares trade today.
What else is being said?
Goldman Sachs has also been looking at the update. It said:
FMG reported a broadly in-line March Q result with GSe (see Exhibit 2), with Fe shipments of 46Mt 2% below our forecast, iron ore realisations on both hematite and magnetite also broadly in-line, but unit costs of US$17.5/t well below our US$18.8/t estimate on lower waste movements and FX.
In response, the broker has retained its neutral rating with a slightly improved price target of $15.60. This is a touch lower than where Fortescue shares are currently trading.
Goldman prefers BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), which trade at a discount to Fortescue. It said:
FMG is trading at ~0.9x NAV; however, still at a premium to RIO & BHP on our estimates; BHP at ~0.7x NAV and RIO at ~0.6x NAV, ~5.6x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs. BHP/RIO on ~4.7x/4.4x), and ~4% FCF vs. BHP/RIO on ~4%/-2%.
So, as far as these brokers are concerned, Fortescue is a hold at current prices.
