Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $83.52. In late afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $81.94 apiece, down 1.9%.
This comes as the gold price also dipped overnight, down 0.4% to US$3,306 per ounce. The gold price hit all-time highs of around US$3,424 per ounce last week, on 21 April.
But don't feel too bad for shareholders.
With the gold price up 26% so far in 2025, Newmont shares remain up more than 36% year to date, broadly in line with the gains posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD).
For some context, the ASX 200 is down just over 1% over this same period.
Newmont shares also trade on a slender 0.7% unfranked dividend yield.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
With the gold price still hovering near record highs, what is Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) forecasting for Newmont shares?
Newmont shares could surge 15% from here
Following on Newmont's first-quarter update, released on 24 April, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Newmont shares.
Among the highlights of the three months, Newmont generated a record first-quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion.
According to the analysts at Macquarie, Newmont's first quarter results were "strong and slightly ahead of its own prior commentary".
Macquarie noted that with a similar performance expected, the ASX 200 gold miner anticipates its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to peak in the second quarter "primarily due to a catch-up of sustaining capital spend".
The broker also noted that the gold miner's net debt of $3.2 billion was $215 million less than it had expected. And Newmont retained its full calendar year 2025 guidance of 5.6 million ounces of gold from its "go-forward portfolio".
And Newmont shares could get a boost in the year ahead if management opts to increase the current share buyback program.
Noting this isn't its base case, Macquarie said:
Interestingly, Newmont management seemed to suggest that, while the dividend is fixed, another increase in the buyback could be a possible tool to handle excess cash generation delivered via record gold prices.
We note that NEM has not made any change to the $3 billion buyback program yet but has purchased $407 million in stock back in April alone.
The broker has a $94.00 price target on Newmont shares. That represents a potential upside of 14.7% from current levels.
