If you are wanting to buy an ASX 200 gold stock after the selloff, then it could be worth considering Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares.
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which sees a lot of value in this record-breaking gold miner.
What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter was impressed with Genesis Minerals' performance in the second quarter, noting that it outperformed both its own and consensus expectations. It said:
GMD hit records across the portfolio, broadly beating our expectations and consensus. GMD produced 74koz Au (BPe 66koz Au, VA 68koz) +3% QoQ. Laverton – 43koz Au (BPe 39koz, VA 44koz). Leonora – 31koz Au (BPe 27koz, VA 24koz). Gold sales over the quarter were 71koz at an average realized gold price of A$6,057/oz (BPe A$5,900, VA A$6,325/oz). Revenue was A$432m (+6% QoQ; BPe $408m, VA $432m). AISC was A$2,578/oz (+2% QoQ; BPe A$2,731/oz, VA A$2,632/oz).
The good news is that the broker believes the ASX 200 gold stock will build on this in the second half of the financial year with increased productivity and hit the upper end of its guidance range. Though, it concedes that a change of contractor could be somewhat testing. It adds:
The 2HFY26 looks to be shaping up nicely, with increased productivity anticipated in 4Q particularly at Jupiter and Hub, with stripping and pre-stripping investments being made over 3Q. GMD announced the transfer of mining contractors to Byrnecut (from Macmahon), and whilst the expectation is for a relatively smooth transfer, short-term teething issues may present. Byrnecut were the historical contractor at Gwalia when it was owned by St Barbara, so the history with the asset is a positive.
Barring any material disruptions, we anticipate GMD to track to the upper end of guidance (260- 290koz) particularly as third-party processing rolls off in the 3QFY26 (there may be minimal spillage into 4Q) and greater ore from Jupiter feeds the Laverton mill. Nearterm catalysts include Reserve and Resource update and the five-year outlook which will include details on mill expansions (2HFY26). EPS changes in this report: FY26 +35%, FY27 +17% and FY28 +8%.
Time to buy
In response to the update, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock and lifted its price target to $9.90 (from $8.65).
Based on its current share price of $7.59, this implies potential upside of 30% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:
We increase our TP to $9.90 on adjustments to our gold price outlook and incorporation of our 2QFY26 result and maintain our Buy recommendation. We believe GMD to be a high-quality gold producer, expanding production underpinned by a large Mineral Resource portfolio (18.6Moz), into a rising gold price environment.
